Tennis is a great sport to wager on because it runs for 11 months and at certain points of the year can be on 24 hours a day. Taking the time to learn the players can be profitable with the number of opportunities you have to find wagers at the best betting sites. What are the best strategies for you to be profitable when betting on tennis?
Moneyline Strategies
Tennis has a high variance in results, especially in smaller tournaments. Targeting ML underdogs in favorable situations created by travel, fatigue, and being accustomed to the current surface allows the discerning bettor to be profitable.
The ATP is more chalky. The favorites win more often, but the ATP odds reflect that. Also in the ATP, breaks of serve are more important.
In the WTA, falling behind by a break isn’t as devastating, and leads to more live betting opportunities. On the ATP side, it is much rarer for a player to recover from a break, especially on quick hard courts and grass. Here is the order to recover from a break by toughest to easiest:
- Quick hard courts
- Grass
- Medium hard courts
- Slow hard courts
- Clay
Also, clay can play slow or fast, so keep an eye on that. The slower the surface, the easier it is to break your opponent’s serve.
Surface matters! Players’ skill levels wildly fluctuate from surface to surface. It doesn’t always make sense. There are plenty of baseliners who struggle on clay and big servers who struggle on grass. Get to know each player’s preferences and where they are comfortable.
If you aren’t sure, watch a couple of rounds of each tournament before betting. First round odds can have some value if you are intently watching the tour, but for beginners, I would suggest waiting until the 2nd or 3rd round to enter the fray. That way you have seen the player on the specific surface and in the specific conditions.
The advantage bettor will become aware of all the specialists. This will lead them to bet specialists against big-name players uncomfortable on a surface. Tennis handicapping does take a lot of study as you will need to learn the players, their strengths, and weaknesses, and these can vary depending on the surface on which the matches are played.
Form Strategies
Form is a major factor in a tennis handicap.
Form means how well a player is currently playing. Even top 5 players go through streaks and weeks where they don’t play at their top level.
When handicapping a match, it is important to look at recent results on the same surface and properly assess the level of competition. Keep an eye on form and as you keep tabs on each player’s form, it is easier to rate each victory and loss.
Using Statistics Strategically
I prefer to use tape study as my prime source of handicapping and I look to the numbers to confirm what I’m seeing.
I can’t watch every match, so I can get biases from the limited matches I see. Making my original opinions from tape study and then confirming through numbers is a solid way to combine both important aspects of handicapping.
The most common numbers to use are hold/break percentage by surface. However be careful. Because of the way the tour is scheduled, sometimes your 52-week sample size can be distorted by last season’s results.
Statistics are important, but learning to evaluate players’ strengths and weaknesses by scouting the match is a more important tool. Statistics to consider besides hold/break are first serve %, Unforced Error to Winner Ratio, and 2nd serve speed.
I like to know the difference between the first and 2nd serve speed because it gives me an idea of the player’s confidence on that day.
Situation Strategies
Tennis players travel and compete on multiple continents, sometimes all in the same month.
Oftentimes the top player can get dispatched in a seemingly huge upset in the 1st round, yet the avid observer will not be surprised due to the amount of tennis played the previous week and the travel situation, which forced the better player to come in exhausted.
The jet lag can do the work for you. Pay attention to the player’s schedule, the amount of tennis they played in the week before, and the amount of travel that they have had to contend with.
Top players also play smaller tournaments worth less ranking points for an appearance fee. In those cases, oftentimes the high-ranking player is there for their appearance fee and is not too worried about their actual performance that week. Be aware of travel situations and motivation before placing a tennis bet.
By using form, statistics, tape study, individual matchups, and evaluating the situation we can isolate spots where we believe we have an advantage over the books and place +EV (Expected Value) tennis bets. It takes some work to start, but once you have done the preliminary tasks, the opportunities are abundant.
