It’s almost impossible to get away from the topic in everyday conversation. In fact, it’s the very manner in which a lot of conversations are started: Hot enough for you? Colder than a mother-in-law’s kiss. Only a duck could be happy outside today.
The good news is baseball bettors do not need an advanced degree in meteorology, but the bad news is those bettors who don’t have at least a basic understanding of weather will ultimately pay the price.
Meteorology 101
That basic understanding goes beyond knowing if the wind is blowing in or out, and the safest bet for any gambler is understanding oddsmakers at their favorite sportsbooks not only have a basic understanding, they know how John Q. Public will react to certain weather conditions.
Temperature is where meteorology and baseball physics collide, and it’s really an easy concept for bettors to remember: The warmer the temperature, the less dense the air. The less dense the air, the farther a fly ball travels.
If we use 75°F (23.8°C) as a starting point, for every degree in Fahrenheit the temperature rises above that mark, baseballs will travel roughly 1% further at sea level.
Obviously, that means balls generally travel greater distances during day games than night games. One good example is Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles where we begin to see warmer temps in May, and totals at sharp sportsbooks inching up half a run or more.
Excess Humidity Does More Than Ruin Hair-dos
Here is more physics and meteorology for baseball bettors: Humidity is the measure of water vapor in the air, and what we’re more accustomed to hearing is relative humidity.
That number, expressed as a percent, is the amount of water vapor in the air relative to if the air was 100% saturated. The relationship between temperature and humidity is also simple: The higher the temp, the more water vapor the air can hold.
We all know about the humidor used at the Colorado Rockies’ home, Coors Field, where altitude and dry conditions can age and dry a baseball faster than the leathery skin on a peroxide blonde who spends hours tanning without sunscreen. Those humidors are now used to store baseballs at all 30 MLB parks.
The settings on the humidors are 70°F and 57% relative humidity, and the move was made to keep the baseballs used at Yankee Stadium in New York consistent with the baseballs used at Petco Park in San Diego.
Where this really has made in impact is in Phoenix. Chase Field, home of the Arizona Diamondbacks, sits about 4,000’ lower in altitude than Coors Field in Denver. Since installing the humidor in 2022, home runs have dropped in Arizona.
Betting Baseball Can Be a Breeze
Balls traveling in the same direction as the wind will receive a little extra push, and those batted into the face of a wind won’t go as far. It’s that simple, right?
Well, yes and no. It’s true that if two baseballs were struck with the same force, and one was going into the wind while the other had the wind behind it, the one traveling in the same direction as the breeze is going to fly a greater distance.
But the effect of a 10 MPH blow from the North in Boston isn’t always the same as the effect of a 10 MPH blow in Kansas City.
Wrigley Field, perhaps the most notorious stadium when it comes to wind, is what we call a simple or traditional layout: An upper deck from the LF corner around behind the plate on to RF, but only a lower level of seats in the outfield, so wind can travel virtually unimpeded.
Some of the newer parks, especially those with retractable roofs, rise several stories around the entire playing field, which often leads to a swirling effect. The previous ballpark used in Arlington, TX was notorious for this.
Coming up with winning MLB picks in these stadiums can be tricky, and requires bettors to not only know the North-South layout of the diamond, but peculiarities in wind patterns.
Factoring in Retractable Roofs
Nothing beats sitting outside on a sunny day and watching a baseball game…unless, of course, you happen to be sitting outside in a locale where the thermometer is at triple digits. No amount of cold beer can help make up for that.
There are eight stadiums in the majors with roofs. One of those, Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, is a permanent roof and never opens. The other seven – Houston, Toronto, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Seattle, Miami and Arlington – have retractable lids.
The roofs were put on these stadiums to beat the weather, particularly the heat in Arizona, Texas and Florida. It’s rare for them to be open in the summer months, but it doesn’t hurt to check, just like it never hurts to get an update weather forecast before making any wager at any stadium.
