Until someone can dethrone the champs, the Kansas City Chiefs and their historic quest for a third-straight Super Bowl win is the main story of the 2024 NFL season.
Top-rated sportsbooks have given the Chiefs the best NFL odds (+500 at BetOnline ) (check our BetOnline Review) to win Super Bowl 49. The Chiefs are the 9th team to win back-to-back Super Bowls, but none of the previous 8 teams in their attempt to three-peat were able to get back to the Super Bowl, let alone win a third straight.
But the Chiefs are not your normal team, and they are not even your normal dynasty. Usually, a team that wins at least 3 championships in short order peaks during that run. But statistically, the Chiefs have never quite put together a stacked team that’s elite on offense and defense in the Patrick Mahomes era.
Last year, the Chiefs had an elite defense for a change, but the offense was not up to par, leading the NFL in dropped passes. They still won a Super Bowl, and they still won it in 2022 after trading away Tyreek Hill, having a below-average defense, and Mahomes played most of the postseason on a high-ankle sprain.
We know the Chiefs can win another Super Bowl, but what if the 2024 team can be Kansas City’s best team yet? That’s the scary thought the rest of the NFL has to deal with.
Let’s look at the potential roadblocks that can prevent the Chiefs from making history, and we know injury is one of them. That’s a given for every team in sports every year. We’re more interested in another team rising up to beat them as that’s usually how a dynasty ends.
Any Challenge from the AFC West? Bueller? Bueller?
The Chiefs have won the AFC West every year since 2016, the second-longest division title streak in NFL history. It’s not looking great for the 2024 race to be close either as the Raiders and Broncos both have major issues with scoring points and quarterback play right now.
If a team in the division can give the Chiefs a run for their money this year, it’s obviously the Los Angeles Chargers with Jim Harbaugh coming over to coach up a real team behind Justin Herbert.
But as we saw in Week 1, the Chargers have some offensive deficiencies to worry about after letting go of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler. Herbert should have the best running game and defense of his career, but the Chargers just posted 11 first downs at home against the Raiders, their fewest in any game in the Herbert era.
However, they are building something there with Harbaugh. It just may not reach its full potential until 2025 or later. No major threat to the three-peat.
The Usual AFC Suspects (Ravens, Bills, Bengals)
At some point, you lose hope in a team ever getting over the hump. The Chiefs have faced some good rivals in the AFC, but none have reliably been able to beat them in big games.
- Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are now 1-5 against Mahomes and the Chiefs since 2018.
- Josh Allen and the Bills have had great regular-season success against the Chiefs, but they are 0-3 in the playoffs against them.
- While the Bengals have some wins over the Chiefs, the playoff record is 1-1 in title games, and we know it took the worst half of Mahomes’ career in the 2021 AFC Championship Game for the Bengals to complete that 18-point comeback in overtime.
We’ve already seen the Chiefs dispatch the Ravens on opening night, and even if the Ravens played better than they did in January, it’s just never been a good matchup for them. They also have their own major issues on offense in the postseason.
We’ll see the Chiefs host Cincinnati this week, but the Bengals missed the playoffs last year, and they just lost at home to the Patriots despite being the biggest spread favorite in Week 1. That team has lost some luster with Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon leaving the offense.
The Bills had a good comeback win against Arizona, but we’ll see what happens against tougher competition. Again, can you really trust Buffalo to beat the Chiefs in the playoffs? Records be damned, they have played them better than these other teams as the Bengals always rely on double-digit comebacks and 3-point wins. The Bills have shown they can get a huge game out of Allen on the road, they can force Mahomes into mistakes, and they have been so close the last couple of playoff meetings.
But the Bills will have tough AFC East competition and could be a wild card or on the road again in the playoffs. It just may be time for a new AFC power to deal with the Chiefs.
Enter the Houston Texans?
The new team to watch in the AFC is Houston. C.J. Stroud was the Offensive Rookie of the Year and is a strong MVP candidate this year. He might have the best set of weapons around him in the whole NFL, especially with the way Joe Mixon ran all over the Colts in Week 1. Stefon Diggs also caught 2 touchdowns in his debut, and he doesn’t even need to be their top wideout as they have Nico Collins and Tank Dell.
The defense had some shaky spots in Week 1, but head coach DeMeco Ryans should figure it out, and they added Danielle Hunter to go along with Will Anderson Jr. for the pass rush.
The Texans already won a playoff game last year and got their taste of defeat in Baltimore. They’ve grown up quickly, and they have a chance to do something special this year as these things usually come together fast.
The makeup of the team is also the right one to beat the Chiefs in a big game. Imagine if Mixon is really this good to balance the offense’s passing threat. That could mean long, productive drives that put touchdowns on the board. That shrinks the game for Kansas City, and it makes every mistake (drop, fumble, penalty – things the Chiefs do a bit too often at times) magnified.
They have those edge rushers to chase Mahomes around and make him indecisive. They have a quarterback in Stroud who looks like someone who can duel in a shootout and deliver at the end of the game as he did against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati last year. He was also brilliant on Sunday in making sure the offense had a couple of touchdowns and ran out the clock with the Colts on their heels in the 4th quarter.
It’s a long season, but the Chiefs didn’t look like a spectacular defense on Thursday night. They were saved by Isaiah Likely’s toe landing out of bounds from potentially losing the game 28-27 in regulation on a 2-point conversion the Ravens were definitely going for.
The Texans have all these receiving threats, and the Chiefs lost corner L’Jarius Sneed. Trent McDuffie is great for the Chiefs, but he’s only one corner.
For all those reasons, Houston might be the new power in the AFC to stop this Kansas City three-peat. The teams will meet for the first of hopefully many big games between Stroud and Mahomes in Week 16.
It just might be the AFC Game of the Year for the regular season.
What About the NFC Contenders?
The NFC loves coming up with a new flash-in-the-pan to send to the Super Bowl. The 2013-14 Seahawks are the only NFC team since 1998 to go to back-to-back Super Bowls.
Green Bay was the team I liked for this in 2024 because Jordan Love finished 2023 on a tear, he was the only quarterback to score 27 points on the Chiefs, and they also beat the Lions in Detroit and the Cowboys in Dallas late in the year before giving the 49ers trouble in the divisional round.
Unfortunately, the Packers played poorly on that bad field in Brazil last Friday, and Love injured his MCL. He hasn’t been ruled out for Week 2, but it’s not looking great. However, the Packers were only 3-6 to start last year and 9-8 to get in the playoffs. Plenty of season left, and the good news is Love didn’t suffer a season-ending injury.
But we’ll put a pin in the Packers for now. After Week 1, it is looking like another NFC where the 49ers rule, then it’s just a matter of the Eagles, Cowboys, and Lions being able to beat them or not.
Yawn. It’s tiring to keep seeing the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game, but you can’t argue with a team that has that many elite talents. They just embarrassed the Jets’ vaunted defense with Jordan Mason looking like Christian McCaffrey with nearly 150 rushing yards in an easy win Monday night.
Kyle Shanahan is 0-4 against Mahomes, and we’ll see these teams meet again in San Francisco in Week 7. However, to meet again in the Super Bowl, you’re talking about what would only be the 2nd Super Bowl rematch in NFL history after the 1992-93 Cowboys vs. Bills. Guess what happened there? Dallas won again. I need to see the 49ers get at least one win over the Chiefs (Week 7?) before I can believe they’ll pull it off if given another chance in February in New Orleans.
Speaking of New Orleans, the Saints looked utterly dominant in Week 1 with a 47-10 win over Carolina. But let’s not get crazy yet about putting Derek Carr in line for a home Super Bowl appearance. It was just Carolina.
However, the Chiefs will host New Orleans on a Monday night in Week 5, so we’ll see that matchup too this year and if anything can look optimistic about it for the Saints.
Kansas City Can Only Beat Itself
At the end of the day, the Chiefs are still their own biggest enemy. This team has been to 6 straight AFC Championship Games and 4-of-6 Super Bowls.
They would have won the 2018 AFC Championship Game against New England if Dee Ford just lined up properly, negating a late Tom Brady interception while the Chiefs led 28-24.
They would have won the 2021 AFC Championship Game against Cincinnati if they didn’t implode after taking a 21-3 lead. That pass short of the end zone before halftime when the clock ran out destroyed their confidence after playing flawless offense to start the game.
This team is incredibly hard to beat because they’re never out of a game with Mahomes and Travis Kelce. They are often their own worst enemy, like last year when they dropped crucial passes in losses to the Lions and Eagles, and Kadarius Toney lined up offsides to negate a brilliant touchdown against Buffalo.
Throw in the obligatory fumble, the offensive line penalties, and those moments when Andy Reid tries to get too cute, and you have a team that rarely ever blows anyone out, and 8-of-9 playoff games since 2021 have been decided by one score. Let’s not forget Reid refuses to run the quarterback sneak with Mahomes because of a dislocated kneecap on the play in 2019, so they sometimes hurt themselves on short-yardage situations by not calling the most effective play in the game.
But the Chiefs usually finish on top in those tight playoff games, but that’s hard to always do year after year. Even the Patriots went ringless in 2005-2013 after winning 3-of-4 Super Bowls (all by 3 points too) in 2001-04.
However, there are reasons to think the 2024 Chiefs could be their best team yet.
If the defense remains a top 8 unit, and if the new speed on offense (Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown) opens things up for the passing game again, then we could see a return to the league-leading offensive efficiency the Chiefs had before 2023.
Worthy already made his mark in Week 1 with a pair of touchdowns against Baltimore. Brown hasn’t even made his debut yet because of injury. Kelce doesn’t even have to carry this receiving crew anymore, because Rashee Rice looked fantastic last week and has cemented himself as the WR1 for Mahomes.
It’s usually smart money to bet against something happening that’s never happened before. A three-peat in this era of the salary cap and free agency would be an incredible achievement. Don’t think the Chiefs wanted to get rid of players like Tyreek Hill, Orlando Brown Jr., and L’Jarius Sneed. It just becomes a numbers game, and you can’t pay everyone.
But the Chiefs have a core group that is so hard to beat. The best quarterback, the best coach, the best tight end, the best defensive coordinator (Steve Spagnuolo), and Chris Jones is pretty special on defense too. Mahomes is 10-3 SU as an underdog in the NFL. They showed last year they can win road playoff games as the underdog too in Buffalo and Baltimore. They took down the talented 49ers again in the Super Bowl.
This title reign is going to end soon, but if there was ever a team to make history and pull off the first Super Bowl three-peat, it’s the Mahomes-era Chiefs.
