One of the NFL’s most coveted awards is the Defensive Player of the Year (DPOY) as it’s basically the MVP award for defenders since they rarely get any votes for the regular MVP award.
Edge rushers historically have the edge (pun intended) to win this award, but Denver corner Patrick Surtain II shocked everyone last year by winning DPOY with 25 1st-place votes after he had a big year in coverage for a team that improved to make the playoffs for the 1st time since 2015. Surtain was +12500 to win DPOY before the season started.
But if we’re being honest, this only happened because it was a weak field in 2024. Injuries sidelined top candidates like Aidan Hutchinson (Lions), Micah Parsons (Cowboys), Nick Bosa (49ers), and Maxx Crosby (Raiders).
Hopefully, we’ll get a stronger race in 2025. But the player we’re throwing our most support behind is someone who is currently tied for 7th in the DPOY odds, which comes as a surprise. We’re talking about Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt, who just reset the market with a 3-year extension worth $41M per season.
But here is where Watt stands with the contenders for 2025 DPOY according to the latest odds from BetOnline Review:
- Aidan Hutchinson, Lions (+650)
- Micah Parsons, Cowboys (+700)
- Jared Verse, Rams (+750)
- Myles Garrett, Browns (+800)
- Will Anderson Jr., Texans (+1100)
- Maxx Crosby, Raiders (+1100)
- T.J. Watt, Steelers (+1200)
- Nick Bosa, 49ers (+1200)
Here are 4 reasons why T.J. Watt, with +1200 odds, is the best pick for DPOY this season.
T.J. Watt Just Got Paid
There were NFL rumors that Watt might hold out deep into training camp if he didn’t get a contract extension. Turning 31 in October, Watt knows his window is closing for a huge deal after seeing the money Maxx Crosby and Myles Garrett got this offseason. He’s been every bit as good as them, so he knows his worth to the Steelers is huge.
Just before training camp started, the Steelers extended Watt to that 3-year deal worth $123 million, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history. While that might make some players grow content with their situation, expect Watt to give 100% and play his tail off this season to make sure no one questions that deal.
He’s worth it to this team.
The Schedule Favors T.J. Watt for DPOY
If you go back to last season, Watt was the favorite or right near the top to win this award even if he wasn’t having his best year. That was the state of the race. But the Steelers lost their last 4 games and Watt only had 2.0 sacks in those games (none in the last 3 games).
That was a tough schedule to close the season, but Watt’s lack of production combined with the Steelers’ poor finish turned voters against him as his odds dropped every week. He ultimately finished 4th in DPOY voting, only getting 3 of the 1st-place votes.
But if you look at the 2025 schedule, it favors Watt. The ending shouldn’t be as hard since the Steelers have games with the Dolphins and Browns in there. Imagine Watt sacking Tua Tagovailoa on Monday Night Football or racking up stats against a Cleveland team that could potentially be starting rookie Shedeur Sanders after a lost season.
Watt Can Build Momentum Early
But it’s the start of the schedule that’s also very favorable in helping Watt build steam for his DPOY campaign.
He gets Justin Fields, a sack merchant, in Week 1 against the Jets. Then, in Week 2, he gets Sam Darnold, who couldn’t stop taking sacks in the playoffs.
He gets some inexperienced quarterbacks like Drake Maye (Patriots) and J.J. McCarthy (Vikings) after that. He’ll have prime-time games in the midseason against Jordan Love (Packers), Joe Burrow (Bengals), and Justin Herbert (Chargers), so any high-profile, game-winning type of plays in those games could be huge for his profile.
It’s a very good schedule, both in the quarterbacks they’ll be facing and the exposure from these games.
This Could Be Watt’s Best Team in Years
The Steelers are a tough team to predict for 2025 just because you don’t know which version of Aaron Rodgers will show up. But if things go according to plan, then this could be Watt’s best team in years in Pittsburgh.
Ideally, Rodgers is a quarterback who is great at building leads and playing from ahead. What does that do for Watt? It allows him to tee off on quarterbacks who are throwing more to catch up. That’s something the Steelers haven’t been able to do much in recent years, so playing with more leads would be a welcome change of pace.
Upgraded Secondary Creates More Sack Opportunities
But maybe the bigger reason to like Watt’s chances at racking up sacks and forced fumbles this year is his secondary. The Steelers added corners Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey to go along with Joey Porter Jr. That’s the best corner room Mike Tomlin has ever had. Sure, they had to trade safety Minkah Fitzpatrick to Miami to get Ramsey, but Fitzpatrick wasn’t playing up to par last year.
If you give Watt better coverage behind him, that makes quarterbacks hold the ball a tick longer cause no one’s open, then he’s going to finish with more sacks. It’s a great setup for him, and he still has Cam Heyward on the defensive line, and the Steelers drafted an excellent future replacement for Cam in Oregon’s Derrick Harmon.
Things could always crash and burn here, but on paper, the Steelers have the potential to be the best they’ve been since the 11-0 start in 2020 when Watt led the NFL with 15.0 sacks and finished 2nd in DPOY voting.
Watt’s Challengers Have Some Big Flaws
The DPOY award is one where playing for a good team matters. In fact, the last winner who didn’t make the playoffs was Watt’s brother J.J. for the 2014 Texans, who still finished 9-7, a winning record.
The last DPOY winner to play for a team that didn’t have a winning record was Jason Taylor for the 2006 Dolphins (6-10), so team success has mattered here. That’s why some of Watt’s challengers with better odds than him are not good picks if you don’t expect their teams to do well this year.
Watt’s Top Competitors Have Serious Team Concerns
Myles Garrett is stuck on the Browns, who have an over/under 5.5 wins and don’t know who their quarterback is supposed to be.
Maxx Crosby is staying with the Raiders, who could easily finish last in that tough AFC West.
Micah Parsons wasn’t having a great year even before injury last year, and with the emergence of Washington in the NFC East, the Cowboys may be a 3rd-rate team in 2025.
Even in the case of Aidan Hutchinson, who has the highest odds right now to win DPOY, a lot of the hype is built on his return from injury after he was playing great last year. But Detroit is still likely a team to be led by its defense again, so Hutchinson may end up being a far better choice for Comeback Player of the Year than DPOY.
Then, with a young player like Jared Verse, the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year, the potential is certainly there with the Rams. But he only had 4.5 sacks as a rookie, so he’s going to need a huge sophomore season.
Don’t Rule Out a Previous Winner
This is also an award that loves repeat winners as Watt’s brother J.J. and Aaron Donald have won it 3 times each since 2012. T.J. won it already in 2021 and has been close in other years.
The player to watch out here is Nick Bosa, the 2022 winner, who gets to return to a healthier San Francisco team that has an easy schedule. His odds (+1200 at BetOnline) are equal to Watt’s, but they may be the best values on the board right now.
But we’ll take Watt over anyone today to win this award for the 2025 season.
Top NFL Pick: 2025 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Award – T.J. Watt (+1200) at BetOnline
