The odds released by NCAAB betting sites have an unfortunate tendency to mislead people. Every year, there are sizeable underdogs who prove the bettors wrong. This year will be no different.
Five teams, in particular, are worth keeping in mind because they are double-digit seeds who are primed to advance at least past the first round.
I give my top five in order from fifth-best Cinderella candidate to first-best: James Madison, NC State, Grand Canyon, Charleston, South Dakota State.
5. James Madison
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James Madison asserted itself in the college basketball landscape in the first game of the season when it traveled to Michigan State and pulled off the upset.
The Dukes finished its season 31-3. They carry the nation’s longest active win streak –at 13 games– into the tournament.
Roster
JMU is led by Terrence Edwards, a wing who is a matchup nightmare because he is a three-level scorer. He’ll drive inside and draw fouls at a high rate. He’s comfortable in the mid-range. And he’s an efficient three-point shooter.
The Dukes have good guards who avoid turnovers and plenty of scorers to surround Edwards with, who are efficient both inside and outside the arc.
On defense, they specialize in locking down the perimeter. They rank second nationally at limiting opposing three-point percentage.
Matchups
James Madison is a 12 seed and opens against Wisconsin.
The Badgers are one of the worst teams in the nation at defending the three-point line, so the Dukes can outscore them by thriving from deep.
JMU is only number five on my list because its next opponent will likely be Duke, which is a solid Final Four candidate.
4. NC State
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The Wolfpack have gotten hot at the right time. They won the ACC Tournament despite having to face both Duke and North Carolina.
Roster
NC State has an absolute star in guard DJ Horne. He is extremely difficult for defenses to contain. Among other things, he’s an excellent three-point shooter.
Center DJ Burns is the other Wolfpack scorer whom defenses have trouble containing. His array of moves down low and his pinpoint passing, useful if defenses try to double him, make him effective.
On defense, the Wolfpack are known for their high-pressure man-to-man defense. They don’t let ball-handlers breathe.
Matchups
An eleven-seed, NC State opens against six-seed Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are undersized and banged up down low, so they’ll struggle against Burns.
Good guard play is crucial against their high-pressure no-middle defense. As Houston’s guard group was able to do, NC State’s Horne will tear up Texas Tech.
I have NC State as number four on my list because I give them a better shot against their likely next opponent, Kentucky, than I give JMU against Duke. Kentucky has a marked tendency to allow a lot of points. Its lack of defense is something that can give NC State a decisive edge.
3. Grand Canyon
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Grand Canyon beat San Francisco in a semi-home game and, most impressively, San Diego State. Its win over the Aztecs, who are a five-seed, speaks to the quality of opponent that it is capable of beating.
Roster
The Antelopes are led by Tyon Grant-Foster, a three-level scorer who is tough to match up against. Grant-Foster is one of four upperclassmen in their experienced roster.
Especially veteran point guards are crucial in the NCAA Tournament, which is well-known to be a guard’s game, and Grand Canyon has those in Jovan Blacksher and Ray Harrison.
Matchups
The Antelopes are a 12 seed and open up against Saint Mary’s. This team likes to run, where it will score before Saint Mary’s sets up its defense.
However, it’s primarily the Gaels who will struggle to score against the length of the Antelopes, which helps them force turnovers at a high rate and defend the interior and three-point line very effectively.
After defeating the Gaels, the Antelopes can make it to the Sweet 16 by defeating a struggling Alabama squad or 13-seed Charleston.
2. Charleston
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The Cougars enter the tournament riding the nation’s second-longest win streak. They’ve won twelve games in a row.
Roster
Charleston likes to run and shoot threes. Ben Burnham, Frankie Policelli, Reyne Smith and Bryce Butler all convert over 35 percent of their three-point opportunities.
Matchups
I put 13-seed Charleston ahead of Grand Canyon because the Cougars can achieve the bigger upset seed-wise.
Alabama is a four-seed. The Crimson Tide are really struggling: they enter the tournament having lost four of their last six games. Of those two wins, one was nearly a loss at home to Arkansas.
Alabama’s good offense is typically unable to make up for their deficiencies on defense. During this six-game stretch, the Tide have allowed over 100 points three times.
After beating Bama, Charleston can advance to the Sweet 16 by defeating either a beatable Saint Mary’s squad or 12-seed Grand Canyon.
1. South Dakota State
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The Jackrabbits enter the tournament with a nine-game winning streak. In neutral-court games in non-conference play, they stayed within three points of UCF and within two points of George Mason.
Roster
South Dakota State is a team that can easily catch fire from deep. The Jackrabbits attempt threes at a high rate and rank 48th in three-point efficiency.
Zeke Mayo, Luke Appel, Charlie Easly, and Matt Mims – all of whom are upperclassmen, by the way – shoot 37 percent or better from deep.
Mayo is especially valuable because he is the team’s veteran point guard who is an effective distributor, someone who will draw fouls and a disruptive defender who amasses steals without fouling.
Matchups
South Dakota State is a 15 seed, hence its number one spot in my rankings. This team opens up against Iowa State, a team that often struggles to be efficient offensively.
The Jackrabbits’ propensity for shooting threes will serve them well against an Iowa State defense that likes to play compactly and, accordingly, allows threes at one of the nation’s highest rates.
South Dakota State, too, wants above all to prevent easy layups. It compels teams to shoot a lot of threes, which Iowa State’s offense is allergic to doing.
After shocking Iowa State, South Dakota will advance to the Sweet 16 by upsetting one of two very beatable teams, Drake or Washington State.
