If the NFL draft was perfect science, all the best players would get drafted at the top, busts would rarely happen and late-round gems would be even harder to find. Not to mention that the value of the prop bets markets you can bet at the top NFL sportsbooks would be non-existent.
But the NFL draft is not a perfect science. No matter how much scouting is done and what the consensus big boards say about a prospect after the NFL Combine, the draft is still very much a crapshoot where hindsight is the best analysis we have.
That does not mean teams have not made some atrocious or hilarious decisions that most could have predicted doom for on draft night, such as the Browns drafting party animal Johnny Manziel in 2014 after spending $100,000 on an independent quarterback study that showed Teddy Bridgewater was the best choice.
So, to kick off draft season in the NFL, we decided to look back on the 5 worst NFL draft blunders in history.
Johnny Manziel explains how he lost 40 pounds pic.twitter.com/IlcEefiEXd
— Daily Loud (@DailyLoud) February 22, 2024
Criteria
This can be defined in many ways as something like the 2003 Vikings failing to turn their card in on time and watching 2 teams jump ahead of them with their picks could go down as a draft blunder. At least they got defensive tackle Kevin Williams out of that fiasco.
We also did not include any late-round sleeper picks as every team passed multiple times on players like:
- Tom Brady
- Antonio Brown
- Terrell Davis
- Deacon Jones
- Shannon Sharpe
Remember, the true value of a draft pick isn’t just about the quality of the player you selected. It’s about which players you passed over as well.
5. The 49ers Trade a King’s Ransom for Trey Lance in 2021
The San Francisco 49ers made such a huge blunder with their 2021 draft that it’s kind of annoying the team’s “punishment” has been 3 straight NFC Championship Games and a Super Bowl loss.
Let’s add up the ways the trade to draft Trey Lance was a huge mistake from the start:
- Generally speaking, trading up is frowned upon as most prospects are not stone-cold locks to succeed, so you are better off keeping your picks and spreading that risk out.
- While quarterback is the right position to trade up for, you better be getting a generational talent such as Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.
- Trading up to the No. 3 pick to presumably get the 3rd-best crack at a quarterback is foolish.
- Drafting a quarterback with 318 pass attempts in college, who was basically a 1-year wonder, is a huge red flag for projecting pro success.
- Trading up to No. 3 to draft the 3rd quarterback in the draft who only threw 318 passes against FCS competition at North Dakota State is insanity.
- Making this move when head coach Kyle Shanahan is supposed to be an offensive genius who can make any quarterback look all-world, including a Super Bowl season with Jimmy Garoppolo under his belt in 2019, was just absurd.
In the end, the 49ers gave up 1st-round picks in 2022 and 2023 and a 3rd-round pick in 2022 to Miami to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 in 2021 to draft Lance.
“The 49ers are gonna have significant trade interest for Jimmy G this offseason.. they’ll have the opportunity to trade him for a real draft pick & turn things over to Trey Lance” ~@RapSheet#PatMcAfeeShowLIVE #FTTB pic.twitter.com/rrkMUWk6VI
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) January 25, 2022
What did they get out of it? Lance was 2-2 as a starter with middling statistics. He was only a backup in his rookie season, then after winning the job over Garoppolo in 2022, he fractured his ankle in Week 2. That was the last game of his San Francisco career as the team traded him to Dallas for a 4th-round pick in 2023.
Mr. Not So Irrelevant
What saved the 49ers in the end? Oddly enough, it was Brock Purdy, the final pick in the 2022 draft. After Garoppolo replaced the injured Lance in 2022, Garoppolo had a serious injury too that put Purdy in the game. He had instant success that was unprecedented for such a low draft pick, and the 49ers have gone to back-to-back title games with him, including an overtime lead in Super Bowl LVIII before losing to the Chiefs.
The 49ers lucked out with Purdy, who instantly looked more comfortable in the offense than Lance ever did. It almost doesn’t feel fair that the 49ers can absorb such a bad pick like this, but that’s what happens when you have such a talented roster everywhere else.
brock purdy was the best qb in the reg season, @ me all you want 😮💨 pic.twitter.com/eO9Oqhge4u
— crys; 🏈 (@crystalscuor) February 17, 2024
With the vaunted Shanahan system helping every quarterback, you have to wonder what exactly they saw in Lance that would make them spend so many resources to move up to draft a quarterback with such little experience from the weaker division of college football.
That’s the kind of project pick a team in a long rebuild might be interested in trying. Not something a team 2 seasons removed from the Super Bowl should have been involved with.
4. Tony Mandarich Ruins a Perfect Top 5 in 1989 for the Packers
One of the biggest draft busts in NFL history, Tony Mandarich ruined what should have been the most legendary top 5 in draft history in 1989.
It still might be given the players involved:
- No. 1 pick Troy Aikman became a 3-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback and Hall of Famer for the Dallas Cowboys.
- No. 3 pick Barry Sanders, the human highlight reel, is considered by some to be the greatest running back of all time as he would have set the career rushing record if he did not retire early in Detroit.
- No. 4 pick Derrick Thomas was a legendary edge rusher for the Kansas City Chiefs with 126.5 career sacks, including 7 sacks in one game in 1990.
- No. 5 pick Deion Sanders is one of the greatest cornerbacks in NFL history and was an All-Pro selection for the Falcons, 49ers, and Cowboys in his career.
That’s 4 Hall of Famers in the top 5 of one draft class. But then there was the Green Bay Packers with the No. 2 pick. Aikman was already off the board to Dallas, but that’s fine. They could have grabbed one of the greatest running back talents in the history of the sport with Sanders, they could have locked down their top pass rusher for the next decade with Thomas or they could have added an incredible athlete and corner in Sanders, the rare defensive player who could put butts in seats with his flamboyant play.
Really?
It was hard to go wrong in 1989, but the Packers pulled it off. They took Mandarich, the Michigan State prospect who looked more suited to challenge Hulk Hogan at the next WrestleMania than he did taking on Reggie White at offensive tackle.
Sports Illustrated had that infamous “The Incredible Bulk” cover in 1989 of Mandarich, declaring him as the “best offensive line prospect ever.” By 1992, SI was back to featuring Mandarich as “The NFL’s Incredible Bust” after the Packers cut him following a poor 3-year stint where he only started 31 games for the team.
Tony Mandarich pic.twitter.com/B4cYXbMWX7
— Dennis Towle, Jr. (@DTowleJr) April 16, 2023
It would be many years later in 2008 when Mandarich finally admitted to using steroids in college. He then battled addiction to alcohol and painkillers during and after his time with the Packers.
Mandarich found his way back to the NFL in 1996 as a member of the Colts, and he actually was the starting right guard in 1998 for Peyton Manning’s rookie year. But that did little good for the Packers, who took the “safe pick” of a tackle and missed out on a trio of Hall of Famers.
3. The Teams That Passed on Dan Marino in Famed 1983 Quarterback Class
The 1983 NFL draft was a historic class thanks to a record 6 quarterbacks taken in the 1st round, and they all went to AFC teams, including all 5 teams in the AFC East at that time.
But it was the last quarterback to hear his name called who arguably went on to be the best player of them all. Look at the wait Dan Marino had to endure on draft day in 1983:
- No. 1 pick – John Elway, Colts (traded to Denver)
- No. 7 pick – Todd Blackledge, Chiefs
- No. 14 pick – Jim Kelly, Bills
- No. 15 pick – Tony Eason, Patriots
- No. 24 pick – Ken O’Brien, Jets
- No. 27 pick – Dan Marino, Dolphins
The media always had a bias for John Elway going back to his Stanford days, so it is understandable why he was the No. 1 pick. But Marino had a great career at Pitt, leading the team to an 11-1 record, a Sugar Bowl win and throwing 34 touchdown passes in 1981 as a junior. It is true Marino was not as good his senior year, throwing 17 touchdowns and 22 interceptions that year. But the arm talent and release were always on display when he played.
The Better Yinzer
Marino was certainly the more impressive Pennsylvania college quarterback between him and Penn State’s Todd Blackledge, who threw 41 touchdowns to 41 interceptions. Marino also threw more touchdowns at Pitt in his best season (34) than Jim Kelly threw in 4 years at Miami (33).
At least Tony Eason had some solid stats at Illinois, but the irony is his biggest NFL game (Super Bowl XX) saw him get pulled by the Patriots after 6 incomplete passes and multiple sacks against the vaunted defense of the 1985 Bears. Marino ended up being the only quarterback to beat those Bears that year.
Then leave it up to the Jets to make a draft mistake at quarterback. They used the 24th pick on Ken O’Brien with Marino still out there. O’Brien went to Sacramento State and UC Davis, so he was only a Division II athlete.
with the 27th pick in the 1983 NFL draft, the miami #dolphins select, dan marino.
(p.s. the best part of this video is marino’s pooch punt) pic.twitter.com/io00BQD0Is
— josh houtz (@houtz) April 19, 2020
Generational Wealth In the Draft
The 1983 draft class was a stellar one as there were great players taken in that round besides the quarterback position. Eric Dickerson was taken No. 2 by the Rams where he became one of the best running backs ever. Jim Covert was a Hall of Fame tackle for the Bears, who had the 6th pick. Bruce Matthews was a jack of all trades on the offensive line for the Oilers, who drafted the Hall of Famer with the No. 9 pick. The round even ended with a Hall of Famer after corner Darrell Green went to Washington at No. 28.
A lot of teams came away happy with their pick, but 4 teams bypassing Marino for a different quarterback in the 7-to-24 range was crazy.
However, the team that might feel the worst about letting Marino slide to Miami is Pittsburgh, his hometown Steelers. Terry Bradshaw was right near the end of his career and 1983 would actually be his final season before retiring. Chuck Noll needed a signal caller for a new era in Pittsburgh, and who better to do it than the homegrown Marino, a star at Pitt?
True or False: The 1983 NFL draft class is the greatest of all time ✍️ pic.twitter.com/dMOwKwC7MF
— Beerly Football (@BeerlyFootball) April 26, 2023
But the Steelers used the No. 21 pick on Gabe Rivera, a defensive tackle that was going to be their next Mean Joe Greene. Instead, his career ended after 6 games following a car accident that left him paralyzed. The Steelers used a long line of quarterbacks for the next 2 decades before finally landing Ben Roethlisberger in the 2004 draft.
The Real Reason?
In fact, you could argue a big reason the Steelers drafted Kenny Pickett in 2022 to succeed Roethlisberger was because of the failure to take Marino in 1983 to succeed Bradshaw. They didn’t want history to repeat itself as Pickett was a homegrown talent at Pitt. Unfortunately, Pickett can’t even hold Marino’s jockstrap as an NFL quarterback.
Meanwhile, the regret of bypassing Marino should have been almost instant for these teams. Marino had an excellent rookie season in 1983, then rewrote the passing record books with his MVP season in 1984 when he threw for 5,084 yards and 48 touchdowns, numbers that were unheard of at the time. But 1984 also proved to be Marino’s only Super Bowl appearance in his career.
On this day in the year 2000, Dan Marino retired from the NFL as the greatest QB to never win a Super Bowl. 🐬
(🎥: @nflthrowback) pic.twitter.com/dgFedwYFCK
— theScore (@theScore) March 13, 2022
Still, you have to think if a team like the Steelers had Marino, they could have continued competing for more Super Bowls under Noll. Imagine if the Bills had Marino’s quick release and gave him a running game with Thurman Thomas and a defense led by Bruce Smith like Kelly enjoyed when the Bills lost 4 Super Bowls in a row in the 1990s.
Marino went on to set most of the passing records before he retired. Miami proved to be a very good spot for him, but his legacy could have been even greater if the right team had stepped up and drafted him.
2. The Jets Miss the All-Time Leading Passer, Receiver and Rusher in NFL History
We could have done a “Top 5 NFL Draft Blunders by the New York Jets” and had plenty of material left for honorable mentions. That is how rough the draft has gone for this team.
There was a time when fans thought they were getting Hall of Fame defensive tackle Warren Sapp, only for the team to use the No. 9 pick on blocking tight end Kyle Brady in 1995. A year later, the Jets used the No. 1 overall pick on wide receiver Keyshawn Johnson. He wasn’t a bad player, but the 1996 class was very deep at wideout and future Hall of Famers Marvin Harrison and Terrell Owens were taken later.
New Century, Same Old Jets
There’s also that 2000 draft where the Jets had a record 4 picks in the 1st round, but it was a draft class remembered best for Tom Brady going to New England in the 6th round. Using top 5 picks on quarterbacks Mark Sanchez (2009) and Zach Wilson (2021) also stings a bit.
On this day 11 years ago, we all witnessed the iconic Butt Fumble.#MaddenThanksgiving pic.twitter.com/3RwhGhKP9w
— NFL (@NFL) November 22, 2023
But choosing just a single draft blunder by the Jets is an impossible task. That’s why we are going to pick 3 from an 8-year span where the Jets used 1st-round picks on a quarterback, a wide receiver and a running back, but they did not pick the players at those positions who went on to become the all-time leading passer, receiver and rusher in NFL history.
Imperfect Trifecta
- 1983: Jets used No. 24 pick on quarterback Ken O’Brien instead of all-time leading passer Dan Marino (No. 27 to Miami).
- 1985: Jets used No. 10 pick on wide receiver Al Toon instead of all-time leading receiver Jerry Rice (No. 16 to San Francisco).
- 1990: Jets used No. 2 pick on running back Blair Thomas instead of all-time leading rusher Emmitt Smith (No. 17 to Dallas).
Now it is true many teams missed these same players in those drafts. We just looked at Marino in the previous section. But the Jets stand alone, because in each draft, they were targeting a player at that specific position and they picked the wrong player every time.
Marino went on to a prolific career and retired as the all-time leading passer in Miami. Rice is still the record holder for most receiving categories, and he helped secure the 49ers a dynasty while taking Joe Montana’s game to another level. Smith was also at the head of a dynasty in Dallas in the 1990s and is unlikely to see anyone break his all-time career rushing record.
Here is the Greatness of Emmitt Smith Career Highlights under One Minute pic.twitter.com/5mhafKdcvG
— ✭ 🤠 Cowboy X Factor #2023WorldSeriesChampions🥳 (@CowboyXFactor) May 22, 2019
Did the Jets at least take decent players when they missed on these legends? Sort of.
- O’Brien was a serviceable player for a few years, but he took a lot of sacks and did not have anywhere near a Hall of Fame career.
- Toon was at least a 3-time Pro Bowl receiver for the Jets, but anyone is going to look underwhelming compared to Rice.
- Thomas was a bust, rushing for 2,236 yards and scoring 9 touchdowns in 64 games in his career.
In the end, it could have been worse, but it also could have been so much better if the Jets picked any of these players instead of the ones they did. Could you imagine Marino throwing to Rice for a dozen years?
But somehow, the Jets would probably find a way to botch that duo’s performance too.
1. The Saints Trade Their 1999 Draft Class for RB Ricky Williams
Finally, our top NFL draft blunder is that time Mike Ditka and the Saints lost their minds over a running back with plenty of tread on the tires.
Running backs are often at the heart of many wild NFL draft stories, as a bidding war over a running back (Stan Kostka) in 1935 practically led to the creation of the NFL draft for the 1936 season.
In 1989, Jimmy Johnson and the Dallas Cowboys fleeced the Minnesota Vikings for a ton of draft picks by trading them running back Herschel Walker. The Vikings went nowhere with Walker while the Cowboys used those picks to build a dynasty that won 3 Super Bowls.
You would think the league would have learned some lessons from the Walker trade or how the Denver Broncos won back-to-back Super Bowls in 1997-98 with Terrell Davis, a 6th-round pick.
In 1999, Mike Ditka and the Saints traded a fortune to Washington for the No. 5 pick to select RB Ricky Williams out of the University of Texas.
Draft Picks:
1999: 1st, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th
2000: 1st, 3rd
The Bengals declined 9 draft picks for No. 3 to select QB Akili Smith pic.twitter.com/qfzMSMJ8Wl— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) March 11, 2023
Splish-Splash
But in 1999, head coach Mike Ditka was in need of a splashy move after back-to-back 6-10 seasons for the Saints. He coached Walter Payton in Chicago, so he knew the value of a workhorse back for an offense.
But Ditka held the 12th pick in the 1999 draft. If he wanted to get Ricky Williams, the dominant back from Texas, he had to trade up. Little did anyone expect Ditka to trade the entire 1999 draft class for the Saints to Washington to move up to the No. 5 spot to take Williams.
In all, the Saints traded 6 picks from 1999, their 2000 1st-round pick and their 2000 3rd-round pick to take Williams 5th overall.
There was later a famous Sports Illustrated cover where Ditka was dressed as the groom and Williams was dressed as his bride. But it would be a short marriage. The Saints struggled to a 3-13 record in 1999 and Ditka was fired.
To his credit, Williams improved and the Saints made the playoffs in 2000, but they also won their 1st playoff game in team history that year while Williams was inactive. He was traded to Miami in 2002 where he had his best years.
But the crazy thing is Williams wasn’t even the best running back in the 1999 draft. The Colts drafted Edgerrin James with the No. 4 pick ahead of the Saints, and James made the Hall of Fame while Williams will not.
At least we won’t ever see a team trade their whole draft class for a running back ever again.
