Over a week into free agency in the NFL, most of the big-name players have already signed new contracts for 2024. That does not mean there are no more quality players left to acquire, but most of the big moves have already been made with the draft 5 weeks away.
Before starting our betting season at the NFL betting sites, we wanted to rank the top 5 moves so far and give teams credit for getting better with a proven talent without completely breaking the bank and overspending to get them.
Note: We only included moves that involved a team signing a new player. We did not include any trades of players who were already under contract like Justin Fields to Pittsburgh or teams re-signing their own players like Chris Jones staying in Kansas City for the 3-peat attempt.
5 WR Marquise Brown – Kansas City Chiefs
- Contract: 1 year, $7 million (max value of $11 million with incentives)
This is a year where the NFL draft looks like a better source for getting a new wide receiver than this free agency class. Once Mike Evans (Buccaneers) and Michael Pittman Jr. (Colts) were re-signed by their teams, that really took the legitimate No. 1 receivers off the board. Someone capable like Tee Higgins in Cincinnati has also received the franchise tag, though a trade is still possible there.
But one of the best moves was Kansas City plucking Marquise “Hollywood” Brown from the Cardinals for a 1-year deal where he really doesn’t need to be more than the No. 3 receiving weapon behind Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.
Brown could earn up to $11 million this year if he hits the following incentives:
- 7 touchdowns
- 1,000 receiving yards
- 75% of snaps played
Maybe none of those happen for him given the presence of Kelce and Rice that we just highlighted, but Brown’s role is going to improve what Marquez Valdes-Scantling (MVS) struggled to do as a deep threat and outside receiver for Patrick Mahomes.
Despite winning the Super Bowl last year, the Chiefs had serious problems at wide receiver. That group helped the Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes, including some critical ones that cost the team games against Detroit and Philadelphia. Benching Kadarius Toney after Week 15 and getting more out of the rookie Rice helped the Chiefs cut down on their mistakes late in the year and win another Super Bowl.
But let’s not pretend the Chiefs are good to go with the weapons they have. Kelce will be 35 this year, which is ancient in tight-end years. Rice could potentially explode in Year 2, but the team lost MVS and would be wise to move on from Toney and Mecole Hardman (free agent).
The Chiefs needed another receiver now, and Brown’s 1-year “prove it” deal is great for his chances to look good with Mahomes and possibly win a ring before getting a payday somewhere else in 2025.
Kansas City can still look to the draft to fill that slot/gadget role they like so much. But Brown should be a better version of MVS for them this year.
4 RB Derrick Henry – Baltimore Ravens
- Contract: 2 years, $16 million
The musical chairs played at running back during this year’s free agency period have been nothing short of remarkable and unprecedented. Six of the top 12 players in rushing attempts last year have switched teams, including Derrick Henry (Ravens), Joe Mixon (Texans), Tony Pollard (Titans), Saquon Barkley (Eagles), Josh Jacobs (Packers) and D’Andre Swift (Bears).
We also had Austin Ekeler on the move from the Chargers to Commanders, and he’ll be replaced in Los Angeles by Gus Edwards, who left the Ravens.
However, the running back with the best legacy going to the team that will definitely use him a lot is King Henry going to the run-heavy Ravens. You would have liked it even more a few years ago before Henry turned 30, but if he stays healthy, this has the potential to be really good for the Ravens, who can shy away from their committee approach and even help Lamar Jackson focus a bit more on his passing to get better in that department.
Henry has led the league in carries in 4-of-5 seasons since 2019, so there is a lot of tread on the tires, and you do have to worry about him staying fresh for the playoffs when the Ravens will need him the most to dominate if they want to ever get to a Super Bowl in this era. If Henry is the running back in January against the Chiefs in the title game, you can be sure the Ravens wouldn’t have had 6 carries by their running backs. The only question is, can Henry still dominate a big game like that, or is he just going to put up 20 carries for 59 yards?
Soft run defenses are going to be crushed by this Baltimore offense, and look out for the early schedule when teams try to get a handle for this read-option game with Jackson and Henry together in the backfield. They could lead the league in long drives this season with this duo.
It should work really well right away, but the question will be if they can sustain it and perform in the playoffs, something we have not seen from the Ravens or Henry himself for several years now.
3 QB Russell Wilson – Pittsburgh Steelers
- Contract: 1 year, $1.2 million
Quarterback is the most important position, and you have to give the Steelers credit for realizing after 2 seasons that Kenny Pickett was not going to get the job done here. It did not help that he was often injured, did not handle competition in the quarterback room well and had the lowest touchdown pass rate (1.8%) in NFL history.
But for the Steelers to completely rid themselves of their quarterback room from 2023 and land Russell Wilson and Justin Fields for the equivalent of a contract worth $1.2 million and a 2025 conditional 6th-round pick? That’s a steal for no-risk moves at the most important position.
Wilson will get the chance to start first in 2024, and he’ll have to step up if he wants to get back on track for the Hall of Fame or continue being laughed into retirement after a rough 2 years in Denver. In fact, they were so rough that the Broncos would rather eat a record $85 million in dead cap money over the next 2 years than keep Wilson for another season.
That’s the only reason the Steelers are getting him at this price, but maybe he’ll welcome the change of scenery as Denver just never worked out. At least we know this Pittsburgh offense will ask him to throw deep balls to George Pickens, a strength for both, and he should have a defense that will keep most games close and winnable.
The Steelers have been a “win close or lose big” team since 2021. They love winning games late in the 4th quarter, and that’s still a situation Wilson thrives to be in during his career dating back to his rookie season with Seattle.
If Wilson plays well in his 36-year-old season, the Steelers can always negotiate a long-term deal later. If it doesn’t go well, they can try out Fields or just move on again next offseason. Tough to pass up this opportunity for Pittsburgh, and Wilson has to know this might be his last shot to prove he is still the Hall of Fame-caliber quarterback we watched for a decade with the Seahawks.
2 QB Kirk Cousins – Atlanta Falcons
- Contract: 4 years, $180 million ($100 million guaranteed)
Again, quarterbacks are the needle movers in the NFL, and Kirk Cousins was the best option in free agency for the Falcons to move on from Desmond Ridder. You just wish the price tag wasn’t this steep for what will be a 36-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles, but that’s the going rate for quarterbacks these days.
You should not view Cousins to Atlanta as monumental of a move as Tom Brady to Tampa Bay (2020) or even Matthew Stafford to Los Angeles (2021), but it is an improvement for sure over Ridder and company.
Cousins is an accurate passer who was thriving last year before his injury. He’ll have more than enough weapons at all levels in Atlanta, including Bijan Robinson at running back, and the offensive line should be good enough given what he’s dealt with in past seasons.
However, this gets the Falcons back to where they were years ago with Matt Ryan. The offense should be fine, but will the defense be good enough to go far? Time will tell, but new coach Raheem Morris comes over from the Rams and has a lot more coaching experience on both sides of the ball than he had 15 years ago when he took the job in Tampa Bay.
Cousins will also have Zac Robinson as his new offensive coordinator, and that should keep the terminology and scheme similar to what he’s learned in Minnesota with Kevin O’Connell, who also came from the Sean McVay coaching tree. That could make the transition smoother early in the season for Cousins and the offense.
We more or less know what to expect from a team with Cousins at quarterback. They are going to be competitive, and score their share of points, but to do better than a 9-8 record, it will still come down to what range the defense can perform at and if Cousins can pull off a few more close wins like he did so often in 2022 with the Vikings.
But it sure beats another wasted season of seeing Ridder not utilize the young weapons around him in Atlanta in an Arthur Smith offense.
1 Edge Danielle Hunter – Houston Texans
- Contract: 2 years, $49 million
The No. 1 move in free agency has been the Texans getting Danielle Hunter from Minnesota to boost their pass rush. Most playoff teams likely wouldn’t cough up $49 million over the next 2 years to get a defender who turns 30 this season, but not having the money to do so is a big reason why many wouldn’t try this.
Some others wouldn’t do it had they already traded up in last year’s draft to get Will Anderson Jr., who won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Why pay to strengthen a growing strength on the team at edge rusher?
But that’s another reason to love this move. The Texans are taking advantage of having quarterback C.J. Stroud on a cheap rookie contract as he is only going into his 2nd season. Yet, he is already going to be on the shortlist of MVP favorites in 2024 given his rookie success. The Texans had the cap space to make Hunter work financially for the next 2 years.
You add him to the defense to help Anderson get better. Make it harder for teams to double-team your edge rushers if they are both playing great. Hunter has also shown great scheme versatility with Pro Bowl years in 3-4 and 4-3 defenses in his career in Minnesota. Last season, Hunter had a career-high 16.5 sacks and 23 tackles for loss (led NFL).
Think of this like when the Broncos added DeMarcus Ware to help out a stud like Von Miller, or when the Rams added an older Miller to help out the pass rush with Aaron Donald already there on the interior. Strengthen your strength when it’s one of the most important things in the game.
If you are going to get through the AFC playoffs to the Super Bowl, you are going to have to pressure, hit and sack mobile quarterbacks like Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Better to have another player who can do that instead of just one great pass rusher.
Sure, the last time the Texans tried to do this with Jadeveon Clowney joining forces with future Hall of Famer J.J. Watt in 2014, it didn’t quite work out. But Clowney was also a rookie, an overhyped No. 1 overall pick and he was never a sure thing. At least we have already seen Anderson (albeit one year) and Hunter have success at the NFL level.
It was another great, aggressive move by the Texans in the DeMeco Ryans era, and their improved Super Bowl odds –up to +2000 from +2500 at certain top-rated sportsbooks– are reflecting how good this move was to get Hunter.
