The NBA playoffs are an exciting time of the season for a basketball fan and everybody wants in on the action.
With the lines being increasingly sharp on sides and totals, many betting veterans are turning to the world of player props in order to have a profitable postseason. Here are my three favorite player props for NBA betting and the way that I like to approach them.
Performance Doubles
The lines and totals for the postseason are sharp. Unlike the regular season, where the handle is lower and there’s less attention on each game, bookmakers are much less likely to post a line that is incorrect, or that provides the educated better an edge. Even if they do, there is a cadre of sharp bettors hammering the openers. This makes the advantage line harder to wager on as it is gone within minutes of being posted. However, the world of player props gives the advantage bettor a much safer option to approach the playoff games.
Player performance doubles are a great way to mitigate a proper point spread. If we expect the Nuggets to win but think that the point spread they are facing is the correct number, how do we get involved in the action? I would use one of their best players, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, or Michael Porter in a player performance double.
A player performance double is when you combine a player prop with the right team to win. So, for example, rather than betting Denver minus seven points, I can bet Michael Porter to score 15 or more points and Denver to win. Therefore, Denver does not need to cover the spread. I just need Michael Porter to go over his player prop in conjunction with a Denver win.
This opportunity saves me the stress of the late-game free throws, which can often determine whether a properly lined spread is covered. Finding a player you want to target plus the team you want to win with the player performance double is a great way to approach an NBA playoff game.
Rebounding Props
Many handicappers love to attack point props and why not? Scoring is the most fun aspect of the game. It’s a lot of fun to have your player prop point total go over on an exciting slam dunk or a crucial three-pointer being made. However, rebounding totals are a safer way to approach player prop wagering.
Rebounding totals have much less fluctuation than point totals. We will oftentimes see a player score 35 points in one game and then only 17 in the next. Sometimes the difference is in a player’s hot shooting. Others, it can be a schematic adjustment made by the opposing teams’ coaches to limit a player’s opportunities. Regardless, point totals can fluctuate much more than rebounding totals.
A team’s rebounding leader is consistent. A player knows that in order to get a stop the defensive rebound must be secured, and teams have two or three anchors in the paint that will be in charge of corralling those rebounds.
Because of this, rebounding totals are much less prone to fluctuation due to opposing coaches’ schemes. Even if an opposing coach tries to bring a player out of the paint, adjustments will be made to be sure their best rebounder gets down low. Because of this, I much prefer to target a team’s top rebounder rather than a team’s top scorer.
Three-Point Field Goals Made
I find that 3-point attempt usage is much more consistent than total shot usage. This can be due to schemes, but regardless, a player’s 3-point usage is much more predictable than their overall shot usage.
When betting a three-point player prop, it is smart to target usage. You want to take a player who’s going to shoot a bunch of three-point shots. If the shots don’t happen to fall, that’s fine, take your loss. But if I know a player is going to shoot 9 to 10 three-pointers a night, I have no problem betting the over on a 4.5 3-pointers made prop. Most times I win, and sometimes I lose, but the usage is what tells me whether or not I made an advantage wager.
When looking for an edge on scoring props, I like to target three-pointer usage. This is a fun and profitable way to get involved in the game. And oftentimes, your player can get hot and maybe go over the total in the first half. Then you can kick back and watch the rest of the game with a winning wager in your pocket.
I find that 3-point made totals are much more consistent than overall point totals. If you want to attack a point-based prop, look at their three-pointers made prop.
These are some fun ways you can get involved with the NBA playoff action using player props. Use these tips to have a successful betting postseason.
