Thanks to their partnership with ESPN, which has allowed them to air (and stream) almost every weekend for the last two years, UFC’s popularity isn’t slowing down. Not only has its visibility grown, but so has interest in betting on UFC fights.
Because of this, bookmakers now provide a wide variety of UFC prop bet markets, and one of the most wagered-on is the ‘Method of Victory.’
In today’s article, we’ll examine the intricacies of the ‘Method of Victory’ UFC prop-betting market and hopefully guide you to your next knockout-winning ticket.
What Are the Methods of Victory?
Although moneyline and totals are prevalent bets in most sports, the UFC has its own unique way of betting on winning. The UFC method of victory bet is based on the specific way a fighter wins a bout, as you would expect from the name.
There are three possible outcomes for every fight:
- Knockout
- Technical knockout
- Submission
- Decision/points.
In this wager, the fight’s outcome is just as important as picking a certain fighter to win. Take the forthcoming Alex Pereira vs. Jamahal Hill bout as an example. If you bet on the UFC method of victory, KO/TKO, you will win your wager regardless of the round in which either fighter wins. However, to raise your odds, picking a specific fighter in addition to the method will require you to predict Pereira or Hill and the method – KO, Sub, or Decision – in which they win in.
Understand the Methods of Victory
Whether it’s a fight-ending strike, a rear naked choke, or the judge’s input, you need to understand the methods of victory before putting your money on them.
A Win By KO/TKO can be:
- Stoppage by the referee while the fighter is still standing.
- The referee stops the fight while the fighter is on the ground.
- The doctor stopped it.
- Corner throws in the towel.
- The fighter quits because he or she is hurt.
A Win by Submission Could Involve:
- Due to a tap-out from a submission hold, the referee stopped the match.
- The referee stops the bout because a fighter is rendered unresponsive due to a technical submission.
- A fighter gives up verbally.
A Win By Decision:
- Both fighters reach the end of the final round, and nobody loses via KO/TKO or submission.
- The judges score the fight and declare the winner via points given in each round.
- A win by points encompasses a unanimous, majority, and split decision.
The Outlier: Draw
In extremely rare circumstances, fights will be declared a draw. This is another prop betting approach for bettors, but it’s difficult to predict, and this is often shown in the high betting odds available.
IT’S RULED A SPLIT DRAW 🤯@AlexaGrasso retains her title at #NocheUFC! pic.twitter.com/5kIGjT93fu
— UFC (@ufc) September 17, 2023
Basic ‘Method of Victory’ Betting Strategies
The Data
When analyzing the UFC’s method of victory markets, many bettors examine fighters’ betting history and determine the proportion of their bouts that have ended in submission, KO/TKO or decision. An alternative, more sophisticated approach involves examining the more intricate fight stats provided by the UFC for each competitor.
Jamahal Hill’s fight stats from UFC.com
By KO/TKO
When evaluating whether to place a bet on the UFC’s method of victory—KO/TKO—I often examine two metrics: the number of major strikes landed per 15 minutes and the accuracy of significant strikes. These factors let me compare and assess the performance of two fighters, but it’s also important to watch your fighter in real-time, e.g., by watching past fights and comparing styles.
By Submission
The most crucial factors for determining the UFC manner of win are submission, average takedowns per 15 minutes, takedown accuracy and submission average per 15 minutes.
But again, examining fighters’ styles in real-time is also important. UFC Fight Pass is an excellent way to study fighter styles. Regarding submissions, while you might think the BJJ black has an excellent chance of winning by this method, his chances of catching a submission may be limited if he’s opposed to an elite-level wrestler.
No. of Rounds & Decisions
The fight’s length should also be considered; wagers on a decision are more likely to be successful in a three-round bout. It would be best if you also considered the fighters’ durability, as two professional mixed martial artists with a history of strong durability can often be greater wagers for those looking into the ‘By Decision’ method of victory market.
Just a friendly reminder that all fights not in the main event or for the title will only last three rounds instead of five.
