Sports wagering holds a significant cultural presence within the UFC. Intensive wagering occurs on each card, and when the lines change, there is an opportunity to gain an advantage.
Thoroughly examining combatant records, historical probabilities, actual outcomes, and other discernible patterns requires a substantial investment of time but is highly beneficial. Securing even the most minute information may give you the edge over the bookmakers.
Our research has enabled us to compile an extensive list of noteworthy UFC betting patterns, which ought to provide valuable insights for your UFC betting approach.
Remember that while these trends may not guarantee success, they nonetheless deserve your attention. These trends may serve as a deciding element if you are contemplating placing a specific wager.
Let’s waste no more time as we examine the foremost UFC betting trends you must know.
Fighters Who Switch Stances Are the Most Successful
Orthodox and southpaw are the two stances that can completely derail a fighter’s game plan if they aren’t sufficiently prepared for each style. However, when it comes to wagering on a particular stance, bettors have been most successful in backing competitors that utilize a switch stance (orthodox and southpaw).
The evolution of MMA continues, and while upcoming fighters are forced to train striking from both stances, a small number of current roster members can actively switch from orthodox to southpaw and find success.
Win Percentages in MMA for Stances
From the statistics displayed, a mere 208 fighters in professional MMA (Mainly UFC) can actively switch stances. This unique ability holds the biggest win percentage (58%), although we must consider that the sample size (208) is considerably smaller compared to orthodox fighters (1210).
Underdog Champions Are on The Rise
Mixed martial artists dedicate significant time and effort to ascend the ranks of the UFC, aspiring to join the exclusive group of individuals who have the honor of possessing the company's championship belts. The purpose of that belt is to symbolize that you have achieved the highest level of skill and are considered the most skilled fighter in the world within your weight category. Nevertheless, that is not invariably true.
At times, the person possessing the belt is perceived as only a symbolic champion. As a placeholder fighter, awaiting the arrival of the rightful successor. Occasionally, the victor is a disadvantaged competitor.
This ongoing tendency has progressively intensified as the significance of championship belts appears to have eroded. Since November 12, 2016, the date of UFC 205, to January 2023, there have been nine instances where a champion has entered the Octagon as an underdog. To provide a clearer understanding, between the start of 2009 and UFC 205, this occurrence has only happened a mere six times.
The champion is no longer considered the best. The current titleholder is the best for now. An individual whom we often disregard in the present while continuously anticipating their successor.
Since UFC 205, how have underdog champions performed? Starting with UFC 205, there have been 6 instances where the UFC champion was considered the underdog, resulting in 6 wins, 1 loss, 1 draw, and 1 no-contest.
In an 18-month span (2021 to the end of 2022), underdogs have become champions more than in the previous seven years. And these statistics above don’t include the likes of Sean O’Malley, Alexa Grasso, Alex Pereira, and Sean Strickland, who’ve become champions as a betting underdog in 2023.
UFC Debutants Underperform
Curious about the performance of competitors in their inaugural UFC matches? We have been recording the UFC bout statistics since November 2014. Subsequently:
- 209 fighters (43%) won their debut versus a UFC veteran.
- 277 fighters (57%) failed to win their UFC debut versus a veteran.
Short Notice Replacements
In the world of professional MMA, injuries are common, often occurring during training camp or even weeks/days before a scheduled bout. The UFC does an excellent job of finding late replacement fighters, but you should avoid these competitors from a betting standpoint.
With such an extensive sample size due to the sheer high volume of injuries, we will display short-notice replacement statistics from September 9, 2023.
Between November 18, 2023, and September 9, 2023, 20 fighters stepped up on short notice, and only 4 of those fighters left the octagon victorious. More interestingly, 50% of the aforementioned late replacement fighters lost via KO/TKO,
The Fountain of Youth
As previously mentioned, the evolution of MMA is consistent, and you should always consider a fighter's age when handicapping MMA. Father time is a term used to reference aging fighters, and in professional MMA, older competitors own the worst winning percentage.
Fighter Record (win/loss Record for Each Age Group)
Conclusion
There are countless UFC and MMA betting trends to explore, as the above examples are just a handful of the most intriguing ones I’ve stumbled across. They are, by no means, a forceable entry into your handicapping repertoire, but they undoubtedly offer an alternative lens to consider before placing your UFC bets.
Enjoy your wagering journey and remember, “I think there’s a difference between a gamble and a calculated risk,” – Edmund H. North.
