From Royce Gracie in the early to mid-nineties to ‘Suga’ Sean O’Malley in 2024, the Ultimate Fighting Championship has provided combat sports fans with the most exciting in-cage moments for over thirty years.
However, wherever an MMA event is taking place, a plethora of sports bettors are close behind. From a fan perspective, the UFC betting sites have been at the forefront of the sport, as nothing can quite put the icing on the cake like watching two fighters attempt to deem one another unconscious with a little wagering action on the side.
The moneyline approach to UFC betting will never get old, but in most instances, nothing can quite provide your bankroll with an impressive ROI% like the prop betting market can.
On that note, I’m providing you with my top 3 prop betting markets to attack in today’s article. They can sometimes be overlooked, but after reading these three recommendations, you might discover a new-found love for the alternate approaches to banking profit on UFC fights.
UFC Over/Under Rounds Betting
For every preliminary, undercard or main event UFC bout, top-rated sportsbooks establish a prediction on the number of rounds each fight will last, known as the over-under.
Determining whether the contest is a 3-round bout or extends to the full five rounds is crucial. Placing a wager on a round total is akin to the total points system in football, where gamblers choose either the over or under option.
Each round in a UFC bout is 5 minutes, whereas half a round is 2 minutes, 30 seconds. It’s also important to note that five-round contests are usually reserved for main event fights and some high-profile co-main event contests.
- Over/Under Betting Example 1 (3 Rounds): Over 2.5 Rounds
In example one, the fight must exceed 7 minutes and 30 seconds for your bet to cash.
- Over/Under Betting Example 2 (5 Rounds): Under 4.5 Rounds
In example two, the fight must finish by KO, submission, DQ, or injury before 22 minutes and 30 seconds for your wager to be successful.
The Top 25 UFC KO’s of 2023 💥
From Tom Aspinall’s title winning knockout, to Israel Adesanya’s stunning revenge 😱
2023 was a year to remember: pic.twitter.com/FbDN3Faa1V
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) December 31, 2023
UFC Method of Victory Betting
The concept is predicting the fight’s outcome, namely whether it will result in a knockout, submission or decision. The probabilities (odds) of each occurrence vary and depend on the match-up and fighting type.
Those familiar with statistics know that a decision resolves less than 30% of bouts in the heavyweight division. However, the women’s flyweight division has a different pattern, since more than 60% of fights conclude with a decision.
The aforementioned stats demonstrate how the fighters’ techniques, weight classes and strengths might result in different probabilities of victory and the value that can be found.
As a value-hunting example, finding heavyweights with a history of going the distance can provide excellent value if matched with an opponent renowned for finishing fights. On occasion, betting the fighter to win by decision, as in this example, can lead to excellent odds and is a great way to attack this market.
In contrast, finding value in a fighter who rarely wins by knockout or submission but whose opponent has a weak level of durability can sometimes yield huge plus-money prices when you back said fighter to win by knockout or by submission.
- Method of Victory Betting Example 1: Max Holloway to Win By Decision
In example one, Max Holloway needs to win the fight by decision for your bet to cash.
- Method of Victory Betting Example 2: Justin Gaethje to Win By KO/TKO
In example two, Justin Gaethje must win by knockout or technical knockout for your bet to win. In addition, injuries, verbal retirement and disqualifications can also be TKO results.
- Method of Victory Betting Example 3: Alexandre Pantoja to Win By Submission
In example three, Pantoja must win his fight via submission (rear-naked choke, armbar, etc.) for your bet to cash.
Dustin Poirier became the UFC interim lightweight champion one year ago today when he defeated Max Holloway via unanimous decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46) at UFC 236.#UFC
pic.twitter.com/ZoA7Py7YlT— JReal (@BloodyCanvasJon) April 13, 2020
UFC Double Chance Betting
The double chance prop betting market is similar to the ‘Method of Victory’ in that you bet on which method the fight will end (Decision, Knockout/TKO, or Submission). However, you can combine two methods, which act like insurance for the difficulty of predicting just one.
The UFC betting value isn’t as lucrative as ‘Method of Victory’ betting. However, the double chance market is great for wagering on well-rounded fighters like Charles Oliveira, who’s dangerous in all areas of the fight game.
- Double Chance Betting Example 1: Charles Oliveira to Win By KO/TKO or Submission
In example one, should Oliveira win his fight by knockout or technical knockout or by submission, your ticket cashes.
- Double Chance Betting Example 2: Islam Makhachev to Win By Submission or Decision
In example two, if Makhachev wins the contest by submission or points, your ticket is a winner.
Bu Charles Oliveira editi çok güzel 😍 🇧🇷 (@Chadelsmann) pic.twitter.com/K2nPUMuWOR
— UFC Türkiye 🇹🇷 (@ufc_turkiye) March 16, 2024
