As highlighted in our past UFC betting pieces, betting on the sport can be as challenging as winning a round with Francis Ngannou. Prices can sometimes be quite low, and there are also many unexpected outcomes inside the octagon.
Given that moneyline wagers may often go as low as -800 and beyond, exploring other betting markets to diversify your options becomes necessary. The “to go the distance” market is an underrated market frequently ignored.
The Basics of Betting on ‘Fight To Go The Distance’
Bet on whether the fight will (Or won’t) run the full x rounds or end before the final bell (including things like KO, TKO, submission, DQ, retirement or anything else that may finish the fight). It’s really that simple.
It would be best to change your strategy from other markets since you aren’t betting on the victory of a single fighter. Instead, choose contests that will last for the whole duration of the fight or end before the judge intervenes.
In this betting market, it does not matter who wins. You’re simply betting on whether or not the fight will go to a decision.
- Fight To Go The Distance/Yes = The fight must reach the judge’s scoring.
- Fight To Go The Distance/No = The fight ends via stoppage within the allotted time limit.
‘Fight To Go The Distance’ Betting Strategies
For those with more experience betting, this may seem like common sense, but many newcomers to the sport mistakenly believe that all UFC bouts have the same number of rounds. However, thinking this would be a mistake.
The number of rounds in each fight is based on the card positioning of a bout. For example, each Fight Night or UFC numbered event’s main event (e.g., UFC 300) is five rounds. In some circumstances, the co-main event matchups are also five-rounds. Every other scheduled bout on these respective events is three rounds.
It would be best if you changed your wagers or even your strategy based on the official number of rounds for the fight. Shorter bouts seem to have a better probability of lasting the distance. In contrast, longer fights are less likely due to the exhaustion they cause the fighters and their increased time for a knockout, technical knockout, and submission or injury.
Pay Attention to Weight Classes
Regarding professional mixed martial arts, the heavyweight division is the heaviest in this category. Only 27.1% of these bouts go the distance, which is significantly more than any other weight class. This is a huge factor for bettors, as we know the likelihood of a heavyweight contest ending inside the distance is more than 70%!
With 65.7% of fights going to the judge’s scorecards, the women’s strawweight division has the lowest proportion of knockouts and submissions in the UFC. In other words, 33.9% of bouts in this weight class are won via stoppage.
The main takeaway here is that heavier-weight classes deliver more finishes. While blind betting on heavyweight bouts to end inside the distance isn’t advisable, it’s still important to consider when handicapping this prop betting market.
Styles Make Fights
The martial artist’s technique is very important for these kinds of wagers. Regarding FGTD (Fight Goes The Distance), you want guys who aren’t very good at knocking people out or finding submissions. Durability and cardio should also be factored in, as strong chins and fighters with excellent gas tanks can lead to the fight going the distance.
In contrast, in the FDGTD (Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance) market, you want aggressive fighters who are renowned for ending their contests inside the distance. You can also factor in the aforementioned durability and cardio attributes but in reverse.
The best places to get this kind of information to use in your bet are MMA statistics websites, but sites like UFC Fight Pass are also perfect for studying fighters in real time. The latter is the most popular method for handicapping UFC fights.
Technicians Versus Brawlers Versus Grapplers
Technicians, grapplers, and brawlers may be categorized under fighting styles. However, our intention is to emphasize their significance and the potential risks associated with each.
Brawlers are renowned for their formidable strength and often want to conclude matters swiftly. These individuals include the likes of Derrick Lewis and Tai Tuivasa, who are both looking to duke it out with their opponents and turn the lights out early.
Technicians, however, possess a more polished and sophisticated repertoire of skills. They tend to inflict suffering on their opponents by using precise techniques and expending the necessary effort rather than rushing in and out. Prime examples of technicians would be Israel Adesanya or Alexander Volkanovski. This doesn’t mean to say that a KO/TKO or submission finish isn’t possible from technicians; it’s just that their high-IQ game plans and patience are more susceptible to a contest going the distance.
Lastly, the grapplers. Whether it’s an All-American freestyle wrestler, a Greco-Roman savage, a Dagestani Sambo expert, or a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu wunderkind, the grappling style can sometimes be tied with fights going the distance rather than ending. However, this is entirely based on the grappling style.
Wrestlers such as Khabib Nurmagomedov and Belal Muhammad are known for putting the pace on their opponents, draining their cardio via cage control and top position, and more often than not, these fights go the distance. In contrast, Charles Oliveira is a BJJ expert who can find a neck, submit his opponents, and finish the fight ITD within seconds.
Despite these differences in style, remember that this is mixed martial arts, and the most elite fighters are strong in all areas. Fighters can be technicians with a tendency to sometimes brawl, excellent at wrestling and also possess submission skills.
Final Thoughts
The term ‘styles make fights’ is so crucial when betting FGTD or FDGTD. As do weight classes, and the current prices available for each respective market. However, with due diligence and the appropriate research, you’re one ticket away from cashing your next UFC ‘Fight Goes the Distance’ or ‘Fight Doesn’t Go The Distance’ prop bet.
