Heading into Week 6 of the 2024 NFL season, we are still following Kansas City’s pursuit of the historic Super Bowl three-peat as the main storyline in this whacky season. So far, the Chiefs are 5-0 and on an 11-game winning streak despite not playing their best ball by any stretch.
But top-rated sportsbooks are sticking to their guns after a weird start to this season where some contenders have really struggled. These are the only teams with better than +1100 odds to win Super Bowl LIX according to Bovada (check our Bovada Review):
- Kansas City Chiefs (+500 at Bovada)
- Baltimore Ravens (+700)
- San Francisco 49ers (+750)
That’s the defending champs and last year’s No. 1 seeds. But we know the Ravens tend to always fall flat in January, and the 49ers are struggling with injuries and a 2-3 start. Only the 1980 Raiders and 2001 Patriots won the Super Bowl after starting 2-3 in the regular season.
We think there are some teams in both conferences that people may be sleeping on as underrated Super Bowl contenders who could stand in the way of a three-peat success by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
We picked a pair of teams from the AFC and NFC to highlight as potential conference winners, if not Super Bowl winners in the 2024 season.
Minnesota Vikings: The Only 5-0 Team in the NFC
It is hard to believe anyone saw this coming with the Vikings the only 5-0 team in the NFC as they head into their bye. Minnesota lost 2 of its most important players in free agency in quarterback Kirk Cousins and edge rusher Danielle Hunter, replacing both with rookies. J.J. McCarthy tore his meniscus in a preseason game and had season-ending surgery, putting Sam Darnold in the spotlight all year.
All Darnold’s done is shine with multiple touchdown passes in each of his first 4 games this season. He didn’t throw any touchdowns last week in London against the Jets, but he didn’t have to as Brian Flores’ defense has been absolutely dominating by forcing multiple takeaways in every game.
Impressive Schedule
It’s not like you can point to the schedule to call this team a fraud. In the last 4 weeks, the Vikings have knocked off contenders in the 49ers, Texans, Packers, and Jets while dominating each of those team’s quarterbacks. The defense is thriving right now.
There is also reason to believe the offense can get better as tight end T.J. Hockenson should be back soon, giving them another weapon to go along with Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison. Running back Aaron Jones should also be back.
The Best Team in the NFL?
It is no stretch to say the Vikings have played better than any team in the NFL so far this season. This team has not trailed since the 1st quarter in Week 1 against the Giants, an impressive feat.
The downside is that Darnold has never sustained success for a full season, and the NFC North might be the best division in the league as the Packers (3-2), Bears (3-2), and Lions (3-1) all have winning records, and the Vikings still have 5 games left against them.
But if you wanted to pick a team that could stifle the offense of the 49ers and Lions, last year’s NFC finalists, in the playoffs while scoring enough points to win, you’d pick the Vikings right now. The same goes for beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl in New Orleans as that offense has lost both starting wide receivers (Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown) to injury for the season.
Yes, Darnold in a Super Bowl for a team that had a 6.5-win preseason total sounds insane. But did you expect Nick Foles to become a Super Bowl MVP for the 2017 Eagles? It feels like we are long overdue for a weird champion after Tom Brady and Mahomes have won 7-of-10 Super Bowls in the last decade.
Houston Texans: Believe in C.J. Stroud
While Patrick Mahomes has the highest MVP odds (+250 at BetOnline) right now, the player behind him is Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud (+650). His Texans are 4-1, and similar to the Chiefs, they haven’t played their best ball yet.
But Stroud knows how to win the close games for coach DeMeco Ryans, who is now 6-2 in game-winning drive opportunities since last year. Stroud is someone who can throw for over 300 yards and go toe-to-toe with Mahomes, and he’ll get his crack at this Kansas City defense in Week 16 in a must-watch game that could decide everything from the No. 1 seed to the MVP.
Potential Mahomes vs. Stroud Matchup
Still a long way to go to get to that point, but it will be crucial for someone who can escape the pocket, make plays to his deep receiving corps, and win the game late to take down a Kansas City team that is so good in crunch time. Stroud might be that guy, because we’ve sure seen Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen burn through enough chances against the Chiefs already. Give Stroud a shot with his great receivers and edge rushers who can make life difficult for Mahomes’ penalty-prone tackles.
Rashee Rice isn’t coming back for Kansas City, but Nico Collins will be back very soon for the Texans after he left Sunday’s game with an injury. They also have Stefon Diggs now, and Tank Dell hasn’t even gotten going fully yet this year. They simply have more weapons than the Chiefs right now.
Maybe this could even be the next great AFC rivalry, and it will start this year when they meet for the 1st time and possibly a rematch a month later. But the Texans do need to play better than they have as they’re actually minus-12 in scoring differential despite the 4-1 record. That’s thanks to the 34-7 blowout loss against the Vikings in Week 3.
But new contenders often come together quickly. After winning a division title and playoff game last year as rookies, Stroud and Ryans may be ready to take this team the distance to the Super Bowl in Year 2.
Washington Commanders: Is Jayden Daniels the Next Great One?
Again, we’re souring on the 49ers, who may have blown their last great shot with this core in February against the Chiefs. We’re looking for new contenders with value in the NFC, and what a shock it would be to see the 2024 Commanders go the distance with rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and retread coach Dan Quinn.
But the Commanders are 4-1 and have the most efficient offense in the league. Even if it hasn’t been quite as good, the 2024 Commanders are putting up numbers on a per-drive basis on part with the likes of the 2007 Patriots and the best offenses in the last 30 years.
Daniels looks like the real deal. He knows how to run and protect himself for key scrambles. He is mastering the short-passing game and quick game, completing over 77% of his passes already. He also has shown some of the best deep balls this season. He has a shot to shock the Ravens in Week 6 with another big win.
Recent Dominance
The Commanders have just blown out the Cardinals and Browns by at least 21 points in back-to-back weeks. Do you know how many 21-point victories the Chiefs have had during this three-peat attempt? Just twice in their last 44 games.
No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl, but there’s a 1st for everything, right? Brock Purdy came close 2 years ago with the 49ers before he was injured in the NFC Championship Game. Some rookie is going to get there one day, and Daniels is off to the kind of start that will have him in the conversation for greatest rookie quarterback ever if he keeps this up.
Perhaps the bigger detriment to Washington’s chances at a Super Bowl than an inexperienced quarterback is the defense, which has poor metrics despite clowning the Browns on Sunday. But you’re not going to play a quarterback playing as poorly as Deshaun Watson is right now.
Turning the Corner?
On the other hand, this defense did very well against Kyler Murray in Arizona in Week 4 too, so maybe it is turning the corner under Quinn’s guidance. Yes, he’s the coach who blew a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl for the 2016 Falcons, but at least he’s been to a big Super Bowl.
The Commanders still have to deal with the Eagles and Cowboys in that division, but an offense that’s been this historically efficient is something to keep an eye on. At the very least, Daniels should be in the MVP conversation as just a rookie, which is insane in its own right.
Cincinnati Bengals: Kansas City’s Kryptonite?
It may be a longshot given Cincinnati’s 1-4 record, but the state of the AFC is very poor right now. It might be hard to name 5 AFC teams better than the Bengals, let alone 7 that will make the playoffs ahead of them. You can’t confidently say the Jets, who just fired Robert Saleh, or the Chargers, who have a limited receiving corps around Justin Herbert. The Steelers are also no lock after losing back-to-back games following a 3-0 start.
That might be why the Bengals are only -165 at BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review) to miss the playoffs. You’d expect a much worse number for a team that’s 1-4, but the Bengals are playing some stellar offense this year. They just can’t seem to close games out, and the defense has been very poor the last few games.
Competitive Against the Chiefs
But if you look at which team gave the Chiefs the most they could handle this year, it was the Bengals once again in Week 2. They win that game if the referees don’t call that defensive pass interference penalty on 4th-and-16. It was that close again. They held Patrick Mahomes to a career low in passing yards in a game he finished in that one.
The Chiefs better hope the Bengals don’t rebound and get in the tournament. They could even get in as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed and be the Chiefs’ first playoff opponent depending on where the Chiefs finish in the AFC.
Joe Burrow has been overhyped in the past, but he is having arguably his best season right now with Ja’Marr Chase dominating defenses. They just need the defense to turn the corner, and it should be said that they’ve already played some of their toughest games like the Chiefs and Ravens.
Upcoming Schedule
By the time the Bengals have their Week 10 rematch in Baltimore, do not be surprised if they are 5-4 or 4-5 and right back in the wild card race. Their final 7 games don’t look that daunting either, and perhaps the only good offense they’ll see during that stretch is the Cowboys in Dallas.
This team has rallied from slow starts before, and even if the Bengals are ranked No. 16 (dead last) in the AFC right now based on tiebreakers, do not be shocked if they pull off a playoff berth. That says a lot about the poor state of the AFC as the Jets have disappointed, the Dolphins have bombed, and teams with young quarterbacks like the Titans and Colts haven’t improved.
The Chiefs, Ravens, Texans, and Bills might be the only teams you can reliably say are better than Cincinnati right now. Maybe the Chargers if Justin Herbert can get healthy. Maybe the Steelers if they go to Russell Wilson and see if he has anything left in the tank. But the Bengals can jump ahead of the Steelers with 2 meetings left later this year.
Between the weak AFC and Cincinnati’s great play against the Chiefs, they have value as an underrated Super Bowl contender for your NFL picks.
