Now that we’re into April, coverage of the 2025 NFL draft will only get more intense, and the betting markets will also heat up as teams hold private meetings with prospects that will influence the mock drafts and big boards at the sportsbooks.
It’s also a season for misinformation, as no one really knows anything about what will happen (with certainty) in the NFL draft. That’s part of the allure of the draft process. It is far from an exact science.
One of the most valuable betting markets is betting on the position of a team’s first drafted player in the draft. Consider some of these examples from the 2024 NFL draft:
- Many thought the Chargers had to take a wide receiver with the No. 5 pick, but they took offensive tackle Joe Alt and waited for their receiver (Ladd McConkey) in the 2nd round, a strategy that looks to be paying off.
- You could have made a fortune betting on the Falcons to use the No. 8 pick on a quarterback when everyone and their mother had them taking an edge rusher like Dallas Turner or Jared Verse. No one imagined they’d pick Michael Penix Jr. after signing Kirk Cousins to a 4-year deal worth $180 million in March, but that happened.
There may not be any surprises on par with Penix in 2025, but in looking at the current odds for each team at Bovada, we have identified 5 of the best value picks right now for which position these teams will use their first pick on in this draft.
Chicago Bears: Protect the Franchise
According to Bovada, these are the best odds for which position the Chicago Bears will draft first in 2025:
- Running back (+125)
- Defensive lineman/Edge (+210)
- Offensive lineman (+300)
- Tight end (+700)
- Cornerback (+1200)
Listening to new coach Ben Johnson speak this offseason has been exhilarating because he seems to nail every analytical take on the modern NFL. He understands the importance of adjusting his scheme for the talent his roster has instead of forcing his system on the players that may not fit it, he doesn’t overstress turnovers, and he recently said it’s best to have a wide receiver corps with varied skill.
Johnson, who was Detroit’s brilliant offensive coordinator the last few years, just seems to get it. Whether they let him have huge input on their draft choices in Chicago remains to be seen, but it has been strange to see the team, selecting No. 10 overall, commonly mocked to taking the top running back (Ashton Jeanty) or top tight end (Tyler Warren) in this 2025 draft.
Lessons from the 2024 Bears
Did we learn nothing from the 2024 Bears? Great supporting casts being carried by skill players doesn’t amount to much if your offensive line isn’t good enough. Caleb Williams had stars around him but little protection up front to feel comfortable in throwing them the ball on a consistent basis.
While Johnson comes from Detroit, where a high pick on running back Jahmyr Gibbs worked out the last 2 years, he has to realize the team that’s hired him doesn’t have an elite offensive line like the Lions had. Gibbs wouldn’t be this successful if he had Chicago’s offensive line in front of him.
That’s why it feels like good value that the Bears will do their best to protect Caleb more and draft a starter for the offensive line. The team did make some key moves in free agency to acquire veteran starters like Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson, but the tackle spots and center could still use some work.
Let’s bank on the 1st pick of the Johnson era being in the trenches and to benefit the offense and young quarterback.
NFL Pick: Chicago Bears – Position of 1st Drafted Player – Offensive Lineman (+300) at Bovada (check our Bovada Review)
Pittsburgh Steelers: Fade the Quarterbacks
According to Bovada, these are the best odds for which position the Pittsburgh Steelers will draft first in 2025:
- Defensive lineman/Edge (+150)
- Quarterback (+300)
- Offensive lineman (+400)
- Cornerback (+450)
- Running back (+700)
The Steelers have worked themselves into a historically weird spot at the quarterback position. For the 2nd year in a row, they have replaced 100% of their quarterback room before the draft, something no other NFL team has done since the 1970 merger.
The latest news suggests the Steelers are close to signing Aaron Rodgers, but at 42 years old this season, that’s not a long-term move at all. Whether they sign Rodgers or not, the Steelers should still consider a quarterback in this draft.
They just shouldn’t use the No. 21 pick on a passer as that’s historically one of the worst ranges to draft a quarterback. If the Steelers go that route, it very well could be Jaxson Dart (Ole Miss) or taking a chance on Jalen Milroe, the Alabama prospect who plays most similarly to Justin Fields in this draft. But he could also be there in the 2nd round where the Steelers could trade up into this year.
Sticking to Their Strengths
But look for Pittsburgh to go conventional and do what it does best: Restock the defensive line/edge. That’s been a common pick in the Mike Tomlin era, and the likes of Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt aren’t getting any younger. After going offensive line in the 1st round in back-to-back years, this draft should provide the Steelers a good opportunity to get a key piece on the defensive line.
Let the quarterback come later or just roll with Rodgers and Mason Rudolph for 2025 if worst comes to worst on that front.
NFL Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers – Position of 1st Drafted Player – Defensive Lineman/Edge (+150) at Bovada
Washington Commanders: Give Dan Quinn Defenders
According to Bovada, these are the best odds for which position the Washington Commanders will draft first in 2025:
- Offensive lineman (+180)
- Defensive lineman/Edge (+215)
- Cornerback (+475)
- Safety (+650)
- Running back/Tight end/Wide receiver (+1000 each)
How does Washington prepare an encore for the team’s best season since 1991? The Commanders have already had a nice offseason by giving Jayden Daniels the help he needs via trades, acquiring wide receiver Deebo Samuel (49ers) and left tackle Laremy Tunsil (Texans).
With the way Daniels was able to elevate the skill players around him as a rookie, it probably doesn’t make any sense for the team to use the No. 29 pick on a skill player this year unless someone really good slips that far.
Then, with the Tunsil trade, it’s hard to justify a first-round pick on a position that isn’t left tackle along that offensive line. Go with what you have there.
Addressing the True Weakness
What truly held the Commanders back last year was the defense. Dan Quinn is a defensive coach, but you have to give him more players on that side. They’ve already lost some starters on that line like Jonathan Alen, and they didn’t land a big-time pass rusher like Josh Sweat in free agency.
Let Quinn get a talented defensive line prospect to help with the pass rush and slowing down a running back like Saquon Barkley. It’s the 2nd-highest odds for Washington to take in the 1st round, but +215 is good value for what should be a logical pick that feels a real position of need for this team as it looks to get to the Super Bowl in Daniels’ 2nd year. You need more pass rush to get there.
NFL Pick: Washington Commanders – Position of 1st Drafted Player – Defensive Lineman/Edge (+215) at Bovada
Philadelphia Eagles: Restocking the Pass Rush
According to Bovada, these are the best odds for which position the Philadelphia Eagles will draft first in 2025:
- Defensive lineman/Edge (+125)
- Offensive lineman (+225)
- Safety (+370)
- Wide receiver (+800)
- Cornerback/linebacker (+1200 each)
If you look at Philadelphia’s 3 Super Bowl teams since 2017, they are built so well in the trenches on both sides of the ball. In making their 2025 title defense, the Eagles retain basically all of their young, talented offensive core, so it would seem that defense would be the smarter move with that No. 32 pick to end the 1st round.
The Eagles just took a couple of corners (Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean) last year, so that probably isn’t the move again this year even if they did lose veteran Darius Slay to the Steelers.
But one area where the Eagles lost some people is the defensive line. They let Josh Sweat (Cardinals) and Milton Williams (Patriots) get paid handsomely in free agency. Brandon Graham also retired after 15 years with the Eagles.
That leaves some openings in the rotation even if the Eagles still have Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Jordan Davis, Jalyx Hunt, etc. But the way they got after Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with a 4-man rush was keyed by having great pass rushers and depth. The way to rebuild that depth is through the draft, where the Eagles have been hot the last few years.
Let’s go with the Eagles to start finding their next stars up front on defense. It’s the favorite pick here but +125 is still good value for this market.
NFL Pick: Philadelphia Eagles – Position of 1st Drafted Player – Defensive Lineman/Edge (+125) at Bovada
Las Vegas Raiders: The Spot for Shedeur Sanders?
According to Bovada, these are the best odds for which position the Las Vegas Raiders will draft first in 2025:
- Running back (-115)
- Wide receiver (+400)
- Cornerback (+450)
- Offensive lineman (+550)
- Defensive lineman/Edge (+1000)
- Quarterback (+1100)
The Raiders are the team with the best odds to land Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty with the No. 6 pick. In fact, the Raiders are -115 to take a running back with their top pick, making them one of the few teams with a position with better than even odds.
In theory, the pick makes some sense. New head coach Pete Carroll loves a good running game, and he had great backs in his greatest stops, including Reggie Bush (USC) and Marshawn Lynch (Seahawks). Jeanty is a special back, and the success Derrick Henry (Ravens) and Saquon Barkley (Eagles) had last year on their new teams is helping to pave the way for giving more importance to workhorse backs again.
A Long-Term Outlook?
But what if the Raiders have a more long-term outlook with this draft? Don’t forget Tom Brady is a new minority owner and reportedly has influence on personnel decisions for the team, which should certainly include what to do with their highest draft pick.
The team has a hole at wide receiver too with Davante Adams getting traded last year, but this 2025 class isn’t the same as 2024 at that position. It’s hard to justify going wideout at No. 6 this year unless 2-way threat Travis Hunter somehow falls that far.
Instead, the best pick might be to take Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who has a betting draft position over/under of 3.5 with the over favored right now. People seem to think Cam Ward is going No. 1 to the Titans, and that the Browns (No. 2) and Giants (No. 3) will both pass on Sanders.
The Patriots and Jaguars have young quarterbacks and won’t draft Sanders, so the Raiders at No. 6 could be the landing spot for him, and you get great odds for that at +1100. Bringing Sanders, the son of Deion, to the Vegas market, one of the fastest-growing sports markets in the world, sounds like a good move for the future.
Looking Beyond 2025
The Raiders traded for Geno Smith to be their quarterback, but he is going on 35 years old and isn’t really a long-term answer. You’re not going to win a Super Bowl with him in the AFC. Not with all those great quarterbacks.
But perhaps Sanders can learn for a year or two behind Geno, an accurate pocket passer, before taking over and trying to win a division where you have to outduel the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Bo Nix.
Jeanty going to the Raiders wouldn’t be a terrible pick, but it’s not the best value for the team, and Sanders falling in their lap at No. 6 is very realistic at this point. That’s the value play here for both the betting market and the real-life value of the Raiders’ future.
NFL Pick: Las Vegas Raiders – Position of 1st Drafted Player – Quarterback (+1100) at Bovada
