Rain, wind, and heat are three major factors that can affect the outcome of a tennis match. Incorporating these factors into your tennis handicap can help make the difference and give you the slight edge you need to have a profitable tournament.
Let’s take a look at each of these three factors and how to incorporate them into your betting model at top-rated sportsbooks.
Rainy Rackets, Wet Wagering
Unlike baseball, rain coming down will not cancel your Wimbledon wager. The match will be concluded and the wager stands, even if it is pushed back to a different day. So, while this does not affect our handicap for the overall result, there are other things to keep in mind.
Players coming off a rain delayed match may face short rest in the next round.
Having your match broken up into multiple different segments can be extra fatiguing on a player when you count in the extra warm-ups, the extra stretching, the extra cool down, and, of course, the mental fatigue of starting and stopping your match. Players coming off of rain delays against players who were able to play their match without delay could face a disadvantage in the next round.
Breeze Busters, Gusty Gambles
Most players would rather suffer through a rain delay than play through the wind. The wind is one of the worst things that can happen to a tennis player. When the wind is at your back, it can make it very hard to land your serves. Also, wind can be intermittent.
A sudden gust during a point could be the difference.
If the wind is flowing from one direction to another, you can often see the player on one side of the court consistently win both games. This can be great for live betting. If you notice that one side of the court is at an extreme disadvantage to the wind, usually because the wind is pushing balls long, you can bet on breaks of serve in live betting. On a severely windy day, sometimes the side of the court you’re on is more important than who has to serve. In this case, live betting becomes much easier. If you see the forecast for heavy wind, you know that this is a day I should be live betting these matches.
The wind is the tennis player’s nemesis, and most players would rather avoid these situations altogether. However, you, as a handicapper, can take advantage of this by watching how the wind is affecting each player.
Sizzle or Fizzle
Certain players thrive in the heat, other players will wilt.
This is usually fairly easy to predict. Players who grew up in hot or humid environments will do fine in the heat, players who come from colder countries often will have problems. If you see an exceptionally hot day coming up on the schedule, a little bit of research can go a long way.
You can find the players’ previous results in extreme heat. Oftentimes, players will have to play through the heat in Indian Wells and Miami, so those will be good tournaments to start with.
Quick internet searches can also find you players’ quotes and comments about the heat. Players will be quite honest about their preferences. Looking through quotes can help you find which players thrive in the heat and which players will wilt away.
When looking at this, also make sure to take into account the time in which a match is scheduled. Obviously, a midday match will be much hotter than an evening match. In a midday match on a hot summer day, the ball will fly faster. This would be a good time to target an ace prop. In the heat, it can even be harder to return these blistering serves. So, as well as betting on players who thrive in the heat, you can also bet on ace props as well.
Forecast Finesse
There are many different ways to use the weather to your advantage as a handicapper.
You can fade players coming off of tough matches with multiple rain delays. You can watch the match and live bet on players who are struggling to fight against the wind. You can also target players who either thrive or melt in the heat.
Using these strategies can help increase your ROI when betting on the prestigious Wimbledon tournament at the sharpest sportsbooks.
