Let’s face it, the NBA has a serious regular season problem. With only five players on the floor, one great player can elevate a whole team in basketball, unlike any other sport. Therefore, teams who are struggling have the most incentive to “tank” (lose games on purpose), in order to secure a high draft pick and grab a player who could potentially turn around their franchise.
This can lead to non-competitive basketball to end the season as teams who are gearing up for the playoffs face teams who have decided to stop trying to win and instead prefer to improve their draft position.
While the problem has yet to be solved completely, a major step in the right direction was the inclusion of the NBA’s play-in tournament. Before, eight teams would make the playoffs while seven teams from each conference would be left sitting on the sidelines. The NBA has expanded on that idea.
Play-In Drama
Now instead of 8 teams qualifying for the playoffs, only the top six teams in each conference get a guaranteed playoff qualification. The teams in the 7th through 10th slots now are in a play-in tournament for the final two seeds. These games mimic the excitement of the NCAA tournament’s one-game, “winner takes all” playoff format. Because of the one-game format, this has been an exciting addition to the end of the NBA regular season.
The teams that finish 7th and 8th play each other for the right to be the 7th seed. The team that finishes in 7th place has home-court advantage for the game. Finishing in the 7-8 slot is important because the loser of this game is not eliminated.
The team in the 9th and 10th spots in the standings face off for a right to face the loser of the 7-8 game. The loser of the 9-10 game is eliminated, and the winner travels for a chance to take on the loser of the 7-8 game. The loser of the 7-8 game will host the final play-in game against the winner of the 9-10 game.
In the 2023 playoffs, the Miami Heat were a play-in team and lost their first game. Many thought this would be the end of the line for the Heat but they showed that play-in teams can be viable contenders as they made it all the way to the NBA Finals. This example shows why teams no longer give up on the season even if they’re in a low seeding position.
Because these are conference games, the teams involved will have at least three and sometimes four previous matchups against each other. With the time off between the end of the season and the beginning of the playoffs, you can go back and familiarize yourself with some of those games and see how certain matchups played out within them. This can help you decide who to bet on when handicapping the play-in tournament.
Be careful, however, because certain teams will have key players sit out the regular season matchups, so when scouting these previous games, make sure to note who misses time in each game. While players will sit out in the regular season for minor injuries, once the playoffs begin, all players will do their best to be on the floor even if they are not at 100%. This can change the dynamic of using previous games to handicap because if star players or multiple key role players are out, the information you gained will not be as valuable.
Handicapping the NBA Play-In
When handicapping the NBA play-in tournament, using recent data is stronger than using season-long data. For example, the Los Angeles Lakers started slow, but if you sort their statistics after the All-Star break, (when they ramped up and really made a push for the postseason), you are getting a more accurate assessment of where this team is now.
Be careful using full-season data in your score projections, as using more recent data can be more indicative of a team’s current level of performance. Don’t be skewed by early season results, the more recent data will give you more accurate projections.
Survive and Advance
Finally, take into account postseason experience.
Many young teams have talked about not being ready for the style of play taking place in the playoffs. The refs are much more conservative with their whistle during the postseason, so players will be getting to the line less often and the game becomes more physical. Teams and coaches who have experienced this have a big edge in these “winner takes all” games.
The NBA play-in tournament is an exciting addition to the league and makes the regular season more fun at the end with less teams losing on purpose. It is also some of the most exciting basketball of the year when these teams take the court in a “win or go home” situation. Every play-in game is like a Game 7! Everything is on the line.
When betting on the NBA play-in tournament at NBA betting sites, the three factors you should consider the most are:
- The head-to-head results and matchups between the two teams.
- Recent performance and statistics.
- Playoff experience.
Using these three things as a handicapper will help you enjoy the excitement of the play-in tournament while making winning NBA picks.
