The NBA is a great sport and, especially at this time of the year, has people captivated by its exciting and unpredictable nature. However, nothing in this world is perfect, and this applies to the NBA as well.
A Case Study in Contract Woes
One of the biggest flaws in the NBA is its system of guaranteed contracts. This forces teams to pay outrageous amounts to underperforming players if they make the mistake of signing them to a long-term deal. Sometimes this is injury, sometimes it is general malaise, but in any case, the underperforming star is the bane of an NBA franchise.
Guaranteed contracts are one of the reasons why it’s so hard to turn things around quickly in the NBA. In the NFL, it seems that every season a team goes from worst to first in their division. Teams can cut underperforming players in the NFL, regardless of their contract status. This raises the level of competition and keeps each player hungry for a spot on the team. This is not the case in the NBA where after signing the big contract, a player is guaranteed their money regardless of the effort they put forth towards their profession during the life of the contract.
No one epitomizes this more than Ben Simmons. Simmons was the number one draft pick in 2016 and seems to have all the tools to be an NBA star. He is a 6’10 player who can play at point guard through power forward, has an excellent passing vision and is one of the best athletes in the league.
Since a strong performance during his rookie contract, physical and mental health concerns have plagued Ben Simmons and his contract has been an albatross to whichever team has him under contract. Currently, that team is the Brooklyn Nets.
Betting on Ben Simmons
Unfortunately for the Nets and their fans, they are giving Simmons a large portion of their salary cap and getting little to nothing in return. A look at these odds at a top sportsbook like BetOnline (check our BetOnline Review) shows exactly this.
There are some fun props that we can attack for Simmons. For example, after missing most of last season, the bookmakers are not convinced that Simmons will be back. A line of ‘Will Ben Simmons play in game one?” is +170 for yes and -250 for no. The bookmakers think that Simmons will continue to collect a check for doing little to no work.
Another prop is “Will Ben Simmons be on the roster for the Nets in game one?” Yes is -500. In a perfect world, Simmons would be cut and left to his own devices rather than take up salary cap room and a roster spot from someone more deserving. However, the NBA guaranteed contract will allow Simmons to once again steal money from the franchise. And no one will trade for this albatross of a contract which is why yes is -500.
Another interesting prop is “will Ben Simmons retire before the start of the 2024 season?” No is -1000. This makes perfect sense. The man is already essentially retired yet he is still getting paid. Looking at these lines shows the absurdity of the NBA’s contract rules.
Predictions and Recommendations
An easy bet to make is “How many games Ben Simmons will play in the 2024/25 regular season”. I think the under 45.5 games is a great bet for you to make. Simmons has shown no inclination to play through any sort of injury, and his body has obviously betrayed him. Whether it’s his knee or his back, Simmons continues to have nagging injuries that I don’t think will ever properly heal. With the contract being guaranteed, there’s no incentive for Simmons to push himself even beyond the smallest discomfort. This has been shown before. The best bet you can make for Ben Simmons’ upcoming season is that he will play Under 45.5 games.
You can also bet on Simmons’ statistics. His assists per game is set at 6, his points per game is set at 8.5, and his rebounds per game is set at 7.5. Now for these bets to cash, it doesn’t matter how many games he plays. Therefore, as disparaging as I have been towards Ben Simmons in this column, I do believe that you could play over on some of these bets, specifically the assists and the rebounds. Simmons has never been much of a scorer but he does put up plenty of peripheral statistics. Although they are less likely to hit, I would also recommend a small wager on Simmons averaging over six assists per game.
Ben Simmons is one of the frustrating parts of being an NBA fan. When you get saddled with a contract like his, your franchise has little to no hope of competing. Hopefully, the NBA will look to change this in the future, but if they continue to print money hand over fist due to their lucrative TV deal, that is not likely. So pour one out for your friends that are fans of the Brooklyn Nets as they continue to wallow in mediocrity until this contract expires.
Pick: Ben Simmons Under 45.5 Games (-115) at BetOnline
Pick: Ben Simmons Over 6 Assists per Game (-145) at BetOnline
(Note: I would place a much larger wager on the Under 45.5 games than the Over 6 assists)
