Getting ready to place your NCAAB bets? When should you start preparing?
The answer is simple, right now. The first thing you should do is find every team’s conference record as of the morning of February 21, which is exactly four weeks out of useful information on the 68 participants. Why does this matter?
How You Are Performing Now Matters
A lot of bettors get caught up in the seeding and records of teams over the entire season, which is not necessarily a true indicator of how a squad might perform in late March and early April. Here are examples.
- Team A ended the regular season 24-7 and was 12-6 in conference play.
- Team B ended the regular season 22-9 and was 14-4 in conference play.
For the sake of argument, let’s assume that both clubs played in a Top 4 conference, faced similar competition in their respective conferences, and faced nonconference foes that would make their strength of schedule nearly equal.
With four weeks remaining in their season, Team A went 3-3 to slip to 5th place in their conference and was not playing as well as they had in the first part of conference action.
Team B was 5-1 down the stretch and ended up tied for 1st place in their conference, with their only loss coming against the squad they tied with and that was on the road.
Next, in each team’s particular conference tournament, Team A was knocked out in the quarterfinals despite being favored, while Team B made it to the conference finals, where they ran into a hot-shooting lower seed and were upset.
Now let’s calculate the recent record for each team as they head to the Big Dance.
- Team A was 3-4 the last month, dropped to 5th in conference play, and lost in the quarterfinals of the conference tourney.
- Team B has a 7-2 record in the last month, was tied for 1st place in the conference, and was 2nd in their conference tournament.
Of course, who each team will face in March Madness matters as does the point spread, but who do you like better going into the tournament with Team A 24-8 and Team B 24-10 overall?
Understanding Talent Matters
When filling out a March Madness bracket or trying to make college basketball picks who will reach the Final Four or the championship, there are select factors that go into the process of making that determination.
Since 1988, when sixth-seeded Kansas with “Danny Manning and Miracles” won the title, only one team below a four-seed (Connecticut #7 in 2014) has cut down the nets.
First, start with talent. If you follow the early Top 16 the tournament committee releases a month before the tournament (then weekly thereafter), take those teams and add possibly four more and break down their abilities.
The typical profile of a NCAA basketball champion starts with a strong backcourt that can score and defend. At least one of those players should be 6’3 or taller and have NBA ability. We are not suggesting All-Pro skills, but the talent to play in the league. Normally, this individual can take over a game for this team and also make the players around him better.
The second aspect is a player that is 6’9 or taller. The skills of this player are he can rebound well and is highly effective in scoring in the paint while being a factor on defense. Again, we are talking about someone who could be a star in the NBA or at least be drafted and play a few seasons.
Lastly, in today’s game, a 6’5 or taller wing player who can score inside or outside.
Find the teams that have those three players and be very exacting in your determinations and you’ll have four to seven clubs that match that criteria, which will help your brackets or futures bets immensely.
Know The Stats
It is imperative to know the offensive and defensive numbers of those likely in the tournament. From the power conferences, you prefer teams that shoot 47% or higher and have a good balance of two-point and three-point shooting. They would hopefully be above average in turnover ratio, have a plus-differential in rebounds, and be around 75% from the charity stripe.
On defense, a cohesive group that holds opponents to 40% or less shooting and 32% or lower from behind the arc.
For the lesser conferences, use all the same numbers, including one more element. For those clubs from those conferences, you want a backcourt that can make threes and have a good big man who can score, as those types of squads can cover spreads and be Giant Killers.
