Any basketball bettor can make a March Madness Futures wager at the top sportsbooks whenever they feel comfortable. Nonetheless, while you could lose some money by waiting, which is never certain, having patience does have its advantages.
1 Patience Can Payoff
Let’s say before the Selection Sunday brackets are announced, you have three teams that are expected to be among the first 12 seeds as teams you are ready to fire on. After watching the brackets come out and listening to commentary from everyone but CBS Seth Davis (who thinks half the games will be upsets), you start looking over your trio of potential picks.
You notice your second pick and #2 seed, who is a strong defensive outfit, but has trouble scoring consistently away from home, has a bracket loaded with stellar offensive teams. Your first thought is “great” I would have a defensive team that can stop anyone. However, the more you think about it realize these potential opponents have excellent backcourts and if your team has a poor offensive night, your pick could go down in flames.
After doing further research the next day, you decide on your other two choices because you prefer their path to the championship game.
In sports betting, it is never how much you win but how much you keep. Regardless of how the other two picks work out, your instincts proved correct and that team was upset in the Sweet 16. By waiting to see who plays who and what the potential matchups could be, you saved money by not betting and keeping your bankroll larger.
2 Taking Advantage of Unforeseen Opportunities
Another reason for waiting is windows of chance open out of nowhere. As mentioned in another article this writer penned at Today’s Lines, in 2023, Connecticut was great early, lost its way, and got hot again. The 4th-seed Huskies handled Iona 87-63 as nine-point favorites in their opener. Facing #6 St. Mary’s was supposed to be a test at -3.5 and for 34 minutes it was until UConn blew it open.
Instead of facing top-seed Kansas in the Sweet 16, the Jayhawks went down to #8 Arkansas 72-71. With how well Coach Danny Hurley’s team had played, though being just a 3.5-point choice, wise futures bettors went to work and could see UConn was playing as well or better than they did in November and December when they were 14-0 and 11-3 ATS.
The Huskies became the rare team to beat every opponent by 10 or more points in the NCAA Tournament. Not that Connecticut would have been a bad bet before the tourney, but letting the field play out allowed for a clearer understanding of what would eventually develop into a profitable position that could be taken advantage of.
3 Following The Game-by-Game Stats Matters
This is an often overlooked, yet, extremely important key for round-by-round wagering along with potential futures’ bets on the Big Dance.
Studying the box scores is another area that tells you something you may have missed watching a particular contest, or like most of us, several games at once.
Let’s say a team like Kansas wins but fails to cover the spread. When you delve into the box scores, you might uncover the Jayhawks shot just 39%, when their season average was 48%. Kansas’ opponent made 47% of their shot attempts, when during the regular season they were at 42%.
Given the Jayhawks’ history, chances are they would bounce back on offense and defense in their next matchup and be play-on material.
Here is another scenario to ponder. A double-digit seed is off two consecutive upsets. They have the look of a Cinderella to reach the Final Four and are a fascinating college basketball pick to win the region.
Nevertheless, in reviewing those same box scores, this giant killer made 12 threes in one upset and 13 in the other. On the season they averaged seven treys a contest and had not made as many as 10 in 11 tries before the tournament began.
This looks like serious regression straight ahead and facing a quality Sweet 16 foe noted for defending the three-point line, this should be the perfect elixir to knockout this top dog.
Remember to check shooting percentages, three-point percentages, turnovers, rebounds and assists to understand how each game had a winner and a loser. Within those numbers can be what comes next.
