Prop bets have become more popular in recent years at the best MLB betting sites. But prop bets can be tricky in some of the pitcher-friendly ballparks, especially for the uninformed.
There have been many over the years to proclaim baseball as the toughest sport to bet on. That is, at best, a moot theory that will remain unresolved forever. One man’s trash is another man’s treasure, and all that rot, you know.
Baseball certainly isn’t an easy sport to bet – none of ‘em are – and prop bets are still relatively young and evolving on MLB odds boards, and their popularity has risen in part because there are some concrete dos and don’ts along with playing by the seat of your pants.
Pitcher-Friendly Does Not Equal Hitter-Unfriendly
Bettors in their 40s and younger might not agree with prop bets being new, and that’s because prop bets have pretty much been around their entire adulthoods. But the explosion of prop options is still very young in generally accepted sports betting history, and it corresponds with an accompanying explosion of MLB analytics.
That’s a good lead into the first two don’ts when it comes to prop betting in pitcher-friendly ballparks: 1) Do not assume that means the stadium is always friendly to ‘under’ bettors, and; 2) Do not assume it is necessarily unfriendly to hitters.
The oddsmakers have already adjusted their numbers to fit every circumstance, condition and situation, including if the ballpark is pitcher-friendly or vice-versa. So, yes, there may be extra juice on what we used to call ‘worms’ back in the day, but that just leads us back to the one man’s ceiling is another man’s floor.
Picking your spots might sound as obvious as telling batters to only swing at the good strikes, but going with your gut is really part of the whole reason behind prop betting.
Choosing a Park Factor (or Factors) Comes First
That doesn’t mean it’s okay to go willy-nilly at the top sportsbooks. Discipline with your bankroll and attention to the details still apply to keeping prop bets both fun and profitable.
Those details include an abundance of information on baseball stadiums, including small statistical sample sizes for the parks in London, Mexico City and Williamsport. Understanding the numbers and picking just what park factor stats to follow – and how much credence to give those stats – is first on the list for baseball bettors.
There are ballparks that are not so good for scoring runs, but can be friendly to home run hitters depending on all sorts of other factors, beginning with the weather. Certain props for batters in those stadiums can still be profitable wagers for the informed bettor.
The Fluidity of Park Factors
There are several different calculations for Park Factors, and the resulting rankings can vary some. The rankings also change from one season to the next, and that is primarily due to changes in personnel.
Bettors have to stay on top of the free agent signings during the offseason, as well as trades throughout a season and the promotions from down on the farm, if they hope to find a diamond in the rough on the prop bet board.
For years, the Astrodome in Houston was a pitcher-friendly stadium. Even when they adjusted some of the outfield dimensions, pitchers still held the upper hand. But by the time it closed to MLB games in the late-90s, it had become more hitter-friendly. Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio were big reasons why.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards has gone the opposite direction in recent years, meaning what were once ill-advised prop bets just a few seasons ago have become more attractive. The movement towards being more pitcher-friendly was due, in part, to moving the left field fence back.
But it has become more pitcher-friendly primarily because of the personnel, specifically the maturing of some young arms and trades to acquire others. The Orioles were dead last in the AL in ERA in 2021, and ranked fifth in the recently completed 2023 season.
Pitcher-Friendly, or Friendly Pitchers?
Down at the bottom of the AL in ERA for 2023 were the Oakland Athletics. The Coliseum where the A’s play has long been regarded as pitcher-friendly, but it certainly wasn’t a friend for their young staff this past season.
The bad prop bets at the old park were on Oakland pitchers, with better results on the opposition’s hurlers and hitters.
The dimensions at Comerica Park in Detroit have been made to be more hitter-friendly, but it’s still one of the most spacious yards in the majors. It wasn’t a great park in 2023 for strikeout pitchers, however, and once again, some of that can be chalked up to the personnel.
